Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
50 UAB 40.7%   12   13 - 4 5 - 1 22 - 7 14 - 4 +9.5      +5.2 49 +4.3 70 71.1 116 +7.5 79 +9.2 3
82 Louisiana Tech 26.5%   12 - 3 6 - 0 20 - 7 14 - 4 +7.1      +3.8 76 +3.3 84 70.5 127 +10.7 53 +13.1 1
83 North Texas 24.3%   9 - 4 4 - 1 18 - 8 13 - 5 +7.0      +1.9 120 +5.2 53 56.5 357 +8.4 69 +10.1 2
112 Western Kentucky 8.5%   8 - 7 2 - 2 17 - 11 11 - 6 +4.2      +2.6 102 +1.6 122 72.1 87 +2.0 141 +0.7 7
151 Florida Atlantic 2.7%   6 - 8 2 - 2 13 - 14 9 - 8 +0.7      +2.1 113 -1.3 212 67.2 223 -4.8 254 +2.9 5
159 Middle Tennessee 1.9%   9 - 6 2 - 2 15 - 12 8 - 8 +0.2      -2.2 236 +2.5 99 71.6 92 +1.8 144 +0.6 8
167 Rice 2.5%   9 - 6 3 - 2 16 - 12 10 - 8 -0.1      +3.0 100 -3.0 269 71.5 98 +1.9 143 +7.0 4
168 UTEP 1.7%   7 - 8 2 - 3 13 - 14 8 - 9 -0.1      -2.4 242 +2.3 102 67.8 200 -1.1 193 -0.7 9
184 Old Dominion 1.4%   6 - 9 2 - 1 12 - 17 8 - 9 -0.9      -0.6 194 -0.3 178 61.7 335 -4.0 238 -1.4 10
195 Charlotte 1.0%   9 - 6 2 - 1 15 - 14 8 - 9 -1.5      +0.7 157 -2.2 238 65.2 285 +2.2 138 +1.1 6
200 Marshall 0.6%   5 - 10 0 - 4 11 - 17 6 - 11 -1.6      +0.5 163 -2.1 237 80.0 6 -3.6 236 -15.0 13
252 Florida International 0.1%   8 - 7 0 - 4 13 - 15 5 - 12 -4.9      -4.6 302 -0.3 177 67.6 207 -2.6 213 -13.4 12
309 Southern Miss 0.0%   4 - 11 1 - 3 7 - 20 4 - 12 -8.5      -6.2 330 -2.3 241 67.7 204 -6.8 279 -4.5 11
318 Texas San Antonio 0.0%   4 - 10 0 - 5 6 - 20 2 - 15 -9.6      -5.5 322 -4.0 298 72.5 78 -10.6 319 -18.7 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
UAB 1.8 48.7 30.2 14.5 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 2.0 44.2 27.5 18.6 6.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Texas 2.4 29.0 30.7 25.4 9.1 3.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 4.9 1.9 7.1 16.4 26.1 17.1 11.5 7.5 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
Florida Atlantic 6.3 0.5 2.4 6.8 13.9 16.1 16.5 13.9 11.5 8.4 5.8 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Middle Tennessee 7.6 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.7 10.3 13.4 15.1 14.8 14.2 12.1 7.3 2.8 0.8 0.1
Rice 5.4 1.3 4.8 10.6 18.9 22.1 15.9 10.6 7.4 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 7.3 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.6 12.2 15.5 16.4 16.3 14.0 9.2 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
Old Dominion 7.8 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.7 9.7 11.9 12.9 13.6 14.0 13.4 8.9 3.9 1.0 0.1
Charlotte 7.5 0.2 1.0 3.7 8.3 10.6 13.0 13.5 13.4 12.8 11.7 7.4 3.3 1.1 0.1
Marshall 10.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.6 7.8 10.8 15.2 21.9 18.5 10.4 3.0
Florida International 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.0 7.8 13.1 21.0 22.5 16.5 7.2
Southern Miss 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.3 5.5 13.9 28.0 33.9 14.8
Texas San Antonio 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 5.1 13.9 26.1 52.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UAB 14 - 4 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.4 16.2 23.7 24.5 17.0 5.5
Louisiana Tech 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.0 11.2 17.7 21.4 20.8 14.1 6.2 1.2
North Texas 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.9 14.9 20.9 23.0 18.1 8.5 2.0
Western Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 8.0 12.9 18.2 19.4 17.2 11.2 4.9 1.3
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.0 11.1 16.6 18.7 18.0 13.6 7.9 3.6 1.0 0.1
Middle Tennessee 8 - 10 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.5 12.4 17.9 20.5 17.9 12.4 6.5 2.6 0.5 0.0
Rice 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 6.0 11.7 17.4 21.0 17.9 13.1 6.5 2.3 0.6 0.0
UTEP 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.5 10.2 16.9 20.8 20.4 14.6 7.5 2.7 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion 8 - 10 0.2 1.1 3.5 8.1 13.4 17.7 18.4 15.5 11.2 6.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 8 - 10 0.1 1.0 3.0 6.6 12.1 16.3 18.2 16.3 12.7 7.9 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marshall 6 - 12 0.3 1.4 5.1 9.9 15.7 18.8 18.1 13.9 9.3 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Florida International 5 - 13 0.6 3.2 8.4 15.0 19.0 18.8 15.4 10.4 5.7 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 4 - 14 5.9 19.1 27.0 23.0 15.1 6.7 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Texas San Antonio 2 - 16 10.0 23.7 26.4 21.0 11.7 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UAB 48.7% 31.5 14.4 2.5 0.3 0.0
Louisiana Tech 44.2% 29.2 12.2 2.5 0.3 0.0
North Texas 29.0% 15.9 10.3 2.4 0.3 0.0
Western Kentucky 1.9% 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
Florida Atlantic 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Rice 1.3% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
UTEP 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charlotte 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall
Florida International
Southern Miss
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UAB 40.7% 35.8% 4.8% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.2 8.7 17.0 5.9 0.5 0.0 59.3 7.5%
Louisiana Tech 26.5% 22.4% 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 4.9 11.2 6.0 0.6 0.0 73.5 5.2%
North Texas 24.3% 21.3% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 4.3 10.7 5.3 0.6 0.0 75.7 3.8%
Western Kentucky 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 91.5 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 97.3 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 98.1 0.0%
Rice 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 97.5 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 98.3 0.0%
Old Dominion 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.6 0.0%
Charlotte 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Marshall 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Florida International 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UAB 40.7% 3.1% 39.1% 14.7% 4.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 26.5% 2.7% 24.9% 7.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 24.3% 1.9% 23.5% 6.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 8.5% 0.0% 8.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 2.7% 0.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 2.5% 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 88.3 11.5 0.2 0.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.1 0.3 91.9 7.7 0.1
2nd Round 30.1% 0.3 69.9 29.2 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.0 0.1
Elite Eight 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0