Florida Atlantic
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#151
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#254
Pace67.2#223
Improvement+2.8#64

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#113
First Shot+1.8#120
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#161
Layup/Dunks+0.9#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#75
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement+0.7#131

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#212
First Shot-2.8#270
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#61
Layups/Dunks+0.6#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#219
Freethrows-0.9#255
Improvement+2.0#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 47.0% 61.5% 33.6%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 77.5% 49.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round2.6% 3.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 193   @ New Mexico L 92-99 48%     0 - 1 -5.9 +8.6 -13.8
  Nov 16, 2021 58   Miami (FL) L 66-68 30%     0 - 2 +4.1 -6.2 +10.3
  Nov 19, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 75-67 89%     1 - 2 -5.0 -4.1 -0.8
  Nov 20, 2021 347   North Dakota W 98-79 94%     2 - 2 +2.6 +15.8 -12.8
  Nov 22, 2021 189   Troy L 78-83 OT 67%     2 - 3 -8.8 -2.3 -6.0
  Nov 28, 2021 180   James Madison L 65-69 65%     2 - 4 -7.2 -3.5 -4.2
  Dec 01, 2021 293   Stetson W 83-73 85%     3 - 4 -0.3 +8.9 -8.8
  Dec 05, 2021 313   North Florida W 76-41 87%     4 - 4 +23.8 +0.7 +24.5
  Dec 15, 2021 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 46-66 19%     4 - 5 -10.1 -17.2 +8.1
  Dec 21, 2021 275   @ High Point L 52-55 68%     4 - 6 -6.9 -8.7 +1.0
  Jan 08, 2022 200   @ Marshall W 90-77 49%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +13.9 +13.4 +0.0
  Jan 13, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 57-70 42%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -10.2 -8.3 -2.9
  Jan 15, 2022 50   @ UAB L 65-76 15%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +1.0 -2.1 +3.1
  Jan 17, 2022 195   Charlotte W 96-67 68%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +25.0 +27.4 -0.1
  Jan 20, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 22, 2022 200   Marshall W 80-75 70%    
  Jan 27, 2022 168   @ UTEP L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 03, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 309   Southern Miss W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 10, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky L 70-76 28%    
  Feb 17, 2022 83   North Texas L 61-65 38%    
  Feb 19, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 24, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 26, 2022 195   @ Charlotte L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 03, 2022 252   @ Florida International W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 05, 2022 252   Florida International W 72-64 79%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.3 1.8 0.2 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.7 3.6 0.4 13.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 7.9 4.6 0.5 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 7.9 5.8 0.8 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 6.0 6.0 1.2 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.5 6.2 1.6 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.2 0.2 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.1 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.0 11.1 16.6 18.7 18.0 13.6 7.9 3.6 1.0 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 65.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 20.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 8.6% 8.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 1.0% 13.3% 13.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 3.6% 9.4% 9.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-6 7.9% 8.1% 8.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.3
11-7 13.6% 4.6% 4.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 13.0
10-8 18.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 17.6
9-9 18.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.2 0.1 18.4
8-10 16.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 16.4
7-11 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.1
6-12 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
5-13 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%