North Texas
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#83
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#69
Pace56.5#357
Improvement+0.7#144

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#120
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks-0.6#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#84
Freethrows+1.9#50
Improvement+2.0#69

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#53
First Shot+2.6#89
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#21
Layups/Dunks-1.6#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#1
Freethrows+0.2#178
Improvement-1.3#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.3% 25.5% 17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.8% 4.4% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 12.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 98.4%
Conference Champion 29.0% 31.6% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 2.2% 0.3%
First Round23.5% 24.5% 17.0%
Second Round6.8% 7.3% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 85.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 23 - 5
Quad 38 - 311 - 8
Quad 49 - 120 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 103   Buffalo L 66-69 69%     0 - 1 -1.0 -3.0 +1.8
  Nov 18, 2021 220   Texas Arlington W 64-36 87%     1 - 1 +22.7 -1.5 +27.6
  Nov 25, 2021 7   Kansas L 59-71 16%     1 - 2 +5.9 -6.4 +12.1
  Nov 26, 2021 58   Miami (FL) L 63-69 44%     1 - 3 +2.6 -1.3 +3.1
  Nov 28, 2021 106   Drake W 57-54 60%     2 - 3 +7.5 +1.2 +7.1
  Dec 11, 2021 154   Massachusetts W 66-57 73%     3 - 3 +9.5 +1.6 +9.7
  Dec 14, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. W 65-55 86%     4 - 3 +5.2 -6.4 +12.1
  Dec 18, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. W 62-52 42%     5 - 3 +19.1 +3.0 +17.2
  Jan 01, 2022 167   Rice W 75-43 82%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +29.4 +14.6 +21.9
  Jan 06, 2022 50   UAB L 63-69 50%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +1.0 +3.2 -3.2
  Jan 08, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 70-63 81%     7 - 4 2 - 1 +4.7 +3.1 +2.1
  Jan 13, 2022 200   @ Marshall W 69-65 72%     8 - 4 3 - 1 +4.9 +3.9 +1.5
  Jan 15, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky W 65-60 51%     9 - 4 4 - 1 +11.7 +1.3 +10.8
  Jan 20, 2022 195   Charlotte W 67-56 86%    
  Jan 22, 2022 184   Old Dominion W 64-54 85%    
  Jan 27, 2022 309   @ Southern Miss W 66-53 88%    
  Jan 29, 2022 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 03, 2022 168   UTEP W 64-54 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 318   Texas San Antonio W 72-53 96%    
  Feb 12, 2022 167   @ Rice W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 17, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 50   @ UAB L 60-65 31%    
  Feb 24, 2022 309   Southern Miss W 68-50 96%    
  Feb 26, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech W 64-62 61%    
  Mar 03, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 69-55 89%    
  Mar 05, 2022 168   @ UTEP W 62-57 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 5.7 12.1 8.2 2.0 29.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 8.7 13.8 5.8 0.3 30.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 8.9 10.5 3.4 0.1 25.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.9 14.9 20.9 23.0 18.1 8.5 2.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0
16-2 96.0% 8.2    6.6 1.6
15-3 67.3% 12.1    5.8 5.6 0.8 0.0
14-4 24.8% 5.7    1.4 2.9 1.3 0.1
13-5 4.5% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 15.9 10.3 2.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.0% 75.4% 44.4% 30.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 55.7%
16-2 8.5% 49.1% 33.0% 16.2% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.1 4.3 24.1%
15-3 18.1% 32.5% 27.9% 4.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.2 6.4%
14-4 23.0% 24.7% 24.0% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.4 1.4 0.0 17.3 1.0%
13-5 20.9% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 2.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 16.9 0.0%
12-6 14.9% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 12.8 0.0%
11-7 7.9% 9.6% 9.6% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 7.2
10-8 3.3% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1
9-9 1.1% 2.9% 2.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 0.3% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.3% 21.3% 3.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.5 4.3 10.7 5.3 0.6 0.0 75.7 3.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 5.5 0.7 1.4 4.6 19.5 22.5 28.0 13.6 5.7 2.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 63.7% 9.5 0.5 1.4 13.0 18.1 13.5 17.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 57.5% 10.3 2.7 0.4 9.7 14.2 23.9 6.6