Texas San Antonio
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.6#318
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#319
Pace72.5#78
Improvement-1.8#256

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#322
First Shot-5.8#325
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks+1.9#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#345
Freethrows-0.3#196
Improvement-3.5#342

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#298
First Shot-4.5#313
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#140
Layups/Dunks-2.0#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#347
Freethrows+2.1#51
Improvement+1.7#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 71.2% 47.1% 74.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 45 - 66 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 30   @ Oklahoma L 44-96 2%     0 - 1 -37.5 -23.1 -12.0
  Nov 16, 2021 317   Denver W 78-64 59%     1 - 1 +2.1 -2.1 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2021 355   IUPUI W 60-57 84%     2 - 1 -17.0 -8.5 -7.9
  Nov 21, 2021 251   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 58-77 41%     2 - 2 -26.3 -18.9 -6.7
  Nov 24, 2021 335   Lamar W 79-73 67%     3 - 2 -8.0 -1.6 -6.3
  Dec 02, 2021 96   @ Grand Canyon L 71-74 6%     3 - 3 +5.4 +3.4 +1.9
  Dec 11, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. W 78-73 24%     4 - 3 +2.7 +0.2 +2.2
  Dec 17, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley L 50-68 48%     4 - 4 -27.0 -30.8 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2021 202   @ Illinois St. L 64-81 16%     4 - 5 -16.2 -10.6 -5.8
  Jan 01, 2022 50   @ UAB L 59-87 3%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -16.0 -7.0 -9.6
  Jan 06, 2022 309   Southern Miss L 73-74 56%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -12.0 -5.1 -6.9
  Jan 08, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech L 63-79 10%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -11.4 -5.4 -6.7
  Jan 13, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion L 51-83 15%     4 - 9 0 - 4 -30.4 -16.1 -17.2
  Jan 15, 2022 195   @ Charlotte L 53-62 16%     4 - 10 0 - 5 -8.0 -19.7 +11.6
  Jan 20, 2022 168   @ UTEP L 62-74 12%    
  Jan 23, 2022 168   UTEP L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 27, 2022 252   Florida International L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 29, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 03, 2022 167   @ Rice L 70-82 12%    
  Feb 05, 2022 83   @ North Texas L 53-72 4%    
  Feb 13, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 68-79 16%    
  Feb 17, 2022 309   @ Southern Miss L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-82 4%    
  Feb 24, 2022 50   UAB L 64-81 7%    
  Mar 03, 2022 83   North Texas L 55-69 11%    
  Mar 05, 2022 167   Rice L 72-79 28%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 2 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 5.1 5.9 1.8 0.1 13.9 12th
13th 0.0 2.0 9.5 10.9 3.4 0.2 0.0 26.1 13th
14th 10.0 21.7 16.0 4.6 0.4 0.0 52.6 14th
Total 10.0 23.7 26.4 21.0 11.7 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 1.7% 1.7
5-13 4.9% 4.9
4-14 11.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.7
3-15 21.0% 21.0
2-16 26.4% 26.4
1-17 23.7% 23.7
0-18 10.0% 10.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.0%