Old Dominion
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#184
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#238
Pace61.7#335
Improvement+3.7#39

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#194
First Shot-1.4#229
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#117
Layup/Dunks+0.3#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#348
Freethrows+2.1#37
Improvement+4.6#8

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#178
First Shot+2.6#86
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#348
Layups/Dunks+3.7#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#282
Freethrows+0.3#169
Improvement-0.9#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 13.7% 24.2% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.7% 55.2% 27.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 34 - 95 - 14
Quad 47 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 180   @ James Madison L 53-58 40%     0 - 1 -3.2 -19.9 +16.6
  Nov 15, 2021 267   Manhattan W 79-58 76%     1 - 1 +12.8 +11.3 +4.0
  Nov 18, 2021 169   Indiana St. L 36-77 47%     1 - 2 -41.1 -34.0 -8.8
  Nov 19, 2021 153   East Carolina L 60-73 44%     1 - 3 -12.5 -4.6 -9.8
  Nov 21, 2021 211   Penn L 63-71 55%     1 - 4 -10.3 -4.6 -6.7
  Nov 26, 2021 187   Longwood W 62-61 60%     2 - 4 -2.5 -1.5 -0.8
  Nov 30, 2021 153   @ East Carolina L 62-63 35%     2 - 5 +2.1 -4.3 +6.3
  Dec 04, 2021 123   @ George Mason W 60-50 27%     3 - 5 +15.4 -5.2 +21.4
  Dec 07, 2021 340   @ William & Mary W 74-59 80%     4 - 5 +5.3 +1.9 +4.3
  Dec 11, 2021 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 66-75 29%     4 - 6 -4.1 +2.6 -6.7
  Dec 19, 2021 99   @ Richmond L 61-67 19%     4 - 7 +2.3 -4.2 +6.0
  Dec 22, 2021 203   College of Charleston L 80-82 63%     4 - 8 -6.3 +4.0 -10.3
  Dec 30, 2021 252   @ Florida International W 82-77 56%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +2.6 +10.9 -8.2
  Jan 13, 2022 318   Texas San Antonio W 83-51 85%     6 - 8 2 - 0 +19.9 +12.6 +10.3
  Jan 15, 2022 168   UTEP L 70-78 OT 57%     6 - 9 2 - 1 -10.6 -7.8 -2.1
  Jan 20, 2022 167   @ Rice L 69-72 36%    
  Jan 22, 2022 83   @ North Texas L 54-64 15%    
  Jan 26, 2022 195   @ Charlotte L 65-67 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 195   Charlotte W 67-64 63%    
  Feb 03, 2022 200   Marshall W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 67-70 43%    
  Feb 10, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 13, 2022 50   UAB L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 17, 2022 200   @ Marshall L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 19, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 24, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 252   Florida International W 67-60 74%    
  Mar 02, 2022 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 62-72 16%    
  Mar 05, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 66-65 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.0 2.0 0.2 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 6.3 3.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.1 5.0 0.7 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.3 4.6 7.1 1.5 0.1 13.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.2 7.6 2.9 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.6 4.2 0.3 0.0 13.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.1 0.3 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.3 3.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.5 8.1 13.4 17.7 18.4 15.5 11.2 6.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 68.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 45.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.3% 12.3% 12.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.1% 6.3% 6.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-6 3.1% 8.1% 8.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
11-7 6.4% 3.6% 3.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2
10-8 11.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.0
9-9 15.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.3
8-10 18.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 18.2
7-11 17.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.6
6-12 13.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-13 8.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.1
4-14 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%