Southern Miss
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.5#309
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#279
Pace67.7#204
Improvement-0.5#199

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#330
First Shot-4.3#305
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#313
Layup/Dunks-4.0#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#320
Freethrows-2.5#330
Improvement+1.6#80

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#241
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#300
Layups/Dunks+1.2#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#317
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement-2.2#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.3% 13.7% 31.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 101 - 17
Quad 45 - 47 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 165   Louisiana L 45-66 28%     0 - 1 -23.5 -32.4 +10.8
  Nov 15, 2021 57   @ TCU L 51-83 4%     0 - 2 -20.9 -16.0 -3.6
  Nov 21, 2021 335   Lamar W 82-75 70%     1 - 2 -7.0 -1.6 -5.6
  Nov 24, 2021 256   UNC Wilmington W 80-66 37%     2 - 2 +9.0 +5.0 +4.1
  Nov 25, 2021 247   UC San Diego W 56-55 35%     3 - 2 -3.6 -15.2 +11.7
  Nov 26, 2021 178   @ Montana L 62-74 16%     3 - 3 -10.1 -6.0 -4.8
  Dec 01, 2021 149   @ South Alabama L 55-85 14%     3 - 4 -26.7 -16.0 -10.7
  Dec 04, 2021 133   @ Southern Illinois L 41-66 11%     3 - 5 -20.4 -22.3 -2.2
  Dec 14, 2021 238   Jacksonville L 51-62 43%     3 - 6 -17.7 -13.9 -5.3
  Dec 18, 2021 258   @ Louisiana Monroe L 65-74 28%     3 - 7 -11.5 -11.3 -0.2
  Dec 21, 2021 153   @ East Carolina L 67-68 14%     3 - 8 +2.1 -1.1 +3.1
  Jan 06, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-73 44%     4 - 8 1 - 0 -6.1 -3.3 -2.7
  Jan 08, 2022 168   @ UTEP L 54-87 15%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -30.6 -12.9 -19.0
  Jan 13, 2022 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 57-80 6%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -13.4 -10.2 -3.6
  Jan 16, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech L 62-76 11%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -9.4 -6.8 -3.1
  Jan 22, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 61-72 14%    
  Jan 27, 2022 83   North Texas L 53-66 12%    
  Jan 29, 2022 167   Rice L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 03, 2022 252   @ Florida International L 62-68 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 10, 2022 50   @ UAB L 59-79 3%    
  Feb 17, 2022 318   Texas San Antonio W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 19, 2022 168   UTEP L 62-68 30%    
  Feb 24, 2022 83   @ North Texas L 50-68 4%    
  Feb 26, 2022 167   @ Rice L 66-77 15%    
  Mar 02, 2022 50   UAB L 62-77 9%    
  Mar 05, 2022 195   Charlotte L 65-70 36%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 4 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.0 2.2 0.1 13.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 8.6 12.2 5.2 0.5 0.0 28.0 12th
13th 1.0 10.4 15.4 6.3 0.8 0.0 33.9 13th
14th 4.9 7.2 2.4 0.2 14.8 14th
Total 5.9 19.1 27.0 23.0 15.1 6.7 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 2.5% 2.5
6-12 6.7% 6.7
5-13 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.1
4-14 23.0% 23.0
3-15 27.0% 27.0
2-16 19.1% 19.1
1-17 5.9% 5.9
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.9%