Charlotte
Conference USA
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#195
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#138
Pace65.2#285
Improvement-1.2#229

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#157
First Shot+3.8#69
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#339
Layup/Dunks+4.2#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#107
Freethrows+1.3#87
Improvement-2.6#318

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#238
First Shot-3.5#288
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#69
Layups/Dunks-3.5#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#210
Freethrows+0.0#191
Improvement+1.4#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 61.9% 82.4% 58.5%
.500 or above in Conference 42.7% 66.6% 38.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 66 - 13
Quad 410 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 137   Monmouth W 68-66 48%     1 - 0 +1.1 -1.8 +3.0
  Nov 12, 2021 311   South Carolina Upstate W 76-64 82%     2 - 0 +0.9 +0.1 +1.5
  Nov 18, 2021 185   @ Appalachian St. W 67-66 38%     3 - 0 +2.6 +0.1 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2021 88   Toledo L 86-98 22%     3 - 1 -5.5 +16.9 -22.6
  Nov 23, 2021 158   Drexel L 55-67 43%     3 - 2 -11.7 -12.1 -1.1
  Nov 30, 2021 53   Davidson L 58-75 22%     3 - 3 -10.3 -10.4 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2021 271   George Washington W 86-79 75%     4 - 3 -1.6 +5.8 -7.8
  Dec 07, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 66-86 8%     4 - 4 -5.6 -0.1 -5.4
  Dec 11, 2021 186   @ Valparaiso W 68-67 38%     5 - 4 +2.6 +2.6 +0.1
  Dec 17, 2021 49   Wake Forest L 79-82 15%     5 - 5 +6.9 +11.4 -4.6
  Dec 20, 2021 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-54 89%     6 - 5 +1.1 -4.4 +6.3
  Dec 22, 2021 312   Western Carolina W 98-82 82%     7 - 5 +4.8 +15.5 -11.0
  Jan 13, 2022 168   UTEP W 66-53 54%     8 - 5 1 - 0 +10.4 -5.8 +16.2
  Jan 15, 2022 318   Texas San Antonio W 62-53 84%     9 - 5 2 - 0 -3.1 -14.9 +12.0
  Jan 17, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-96 32%     9 - 6 2 - 1 -25.8 -0.6 -27.5
  Jan 20, 2022 83   @ North Texas L 56-67 14%    
  Jan 22, 2022 167   @ Rice L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 26, 2022 184   Old Dominion W 67-65 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion L 64-67 37%    
  Feb 03, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 200   Marshall W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 10, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 13, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-71 32%    
  Feb 17, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky L 68-76 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 200   @ Marshall L 75-77 40%    
  Feb 24, 2022 252   Florida International W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 02, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 69-68 55%    
  Mar 05, 2022 309   @ Southern Miss W 70-65 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.1 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 6.7 3.8 0.4 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.3 4.7 6.8 1.4 0.1 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.7 6.9 2.9 0.2 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.7 6.2 3.3 0.3 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.7 0.3 7.4 11th
12th 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.0 6.6 12.1 16.3 18.2 16.3 12.7 7.9 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 45.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 20.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 8.3% 8.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 8.8% 8.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.5% 5.8% 5.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-7 7.9% 2.5% 2.5% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7
10-8 12.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.5
9-9 16.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.1
8-10 18.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.1
7-11 16.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2
6-12 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.1
5-13 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%