Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#82
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#53
Pace70.5#127
Improvement+3.0#58

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#76
First Shot+3.5#77
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#152
Layup/Dunks+2.4#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement-1.5#271

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#84
First Shot+3.3#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#165
Layups/Dunks+3.9#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#266
Freethrows+0.9#124
Improvement+4.5#8
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.5% 31.0% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.2% 8.1% 2.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 44.2% 61.6% 24.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 4.0% 1.3%
First Round24.9% 28.9% 20.5%
Second Round7.3% 8.9% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.5% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 23 - 5
Quad 37 - 210 - 7
Quad 412 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 16   @ Alabama L 64-93 18%     0 - 1 -12.0 -4.0 -7.2
  Nov 12, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 70-68 92%     1 - 1 -6.2 -5.2 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2021 345   @ Northwestern St. W 83-64 94%     2 - 1 +8.4 +1.9 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2021 258   Louisiana Monroe W 96-74 91%     3 - 1 +14.5 +11.4 +1.7
  Nov 27, 2021 97   @ North Carolina St. L 81-90 45%     3 - 2 -0.7 +10.4 -11.2
  Dec 01, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 87-60 86%     4 - 2 +22.6 +11.9 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2021 95   @ Santa Clara W 78-75 45%     5 - 2 +11.4 +8.4 +3.0
  Dec 11, 2021 165   Louisiana W 78-69 82%     6 - 2 +6.5 +2.2 +4.0
  Dec 18, 2021 13   LSU L 57-66 18%     6 - 3 +7.6 -3.2 +10.9
  Dec 30, 2021 200   Marshall W 79-56 85%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +18.9 +0.7 +17.6
  Jan 01, 2022 112   Western Kentucky W 74-73 70%     8 - 3 2 - 0 +2.6 +0.9 +1.7
  Jan 06, 2022 168   @ UTEP W 64-52 67%     9 - 3 3 - 0 +14.4 -6.6 +20.7
  Jan 08, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-63 90%     10 - 3 4 - 0 +8.9 +6.5 +3.1
  Jan 13, 2022 309   Southern Miss W 80-57 94%     11 - 3 5 - 0 +12.0 +5.2 +7.2
  Jan 16, 2022 309   @ Southern Miss W 76-62 89%     12 - 3 6 - 0 +8.0 +4.6 +3.8
  Jan 22, 2022 50   UAB W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 27, 2022 167   Rice W 81-71 83%    
  Jan 29, 2022 83   North Texas W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 03, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 252   @ Florida International W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 10, 2022 195   @ Charlotte W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 17, 2022 168   UTEP W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 19, 2022 318   Texas San Antonio W 82-63 96%    
  Feb 24, 2022 167   @ Rice W 78-73 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 83   @ North Texas L 62-64 39%    
  Mar 02, 2022 184   Old Dominion W 72-62 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 50   @ UAB L 70-75 31%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 6.6 15.4 13.8 6.2 1.2 44.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.9 12.3 5.4 0.3 27.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 6.6 8.0 2.5 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 5.0 11.2 17.7 21.4 20.8 14.1 6.2 1.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 100.0% 6.2    6.2
16-2 97.9% 13.8    11.9 2.0
15-3 73.7% 15.4    8.1 6.5 0.8 0.0
14-4 31.0% 6.6    1.8 3.4 1.4 0.1
13-5 5.7% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.2% 44.2 29.2 12.2 2.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 83.2% 41.9% 41.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 71.1%
17-1 6.2% 59.7% 35.6% 24.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.5 37.5%
16-2 14.1% 41.7% 32.1% 9.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.6 0.4 8.2 14.2%
15-3 20.8% 28.2% 25.4% 2.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.1 0.0 15.0 3.7%
14-4 21.4% 21.9% 21.4% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.3 2.7 1.7 0.0 16.8 0.7%
13-5 17.7% 18.8% 18.7% 0.0% 12.6 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.2 14.3 0.1%
12-6 11.2% 12.8% 12.8% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7
11-7 5.0% 9.4% 9.4% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5
10-8 1.9% 7.3% 7.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
9-9 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.5% 22.4% 4.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 4.9 11.2 6.0 0.6 0.0 73.5 5.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 5.9 1.2 1.2 4.9 16.6 18.2 25.1 18.6 5.7 4.0 0.8 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 76.7% 8.9 3.0 13.5 15.0 12.8 19.5 11.3 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 68.7% 9.3 1.0 6.1 13.1 20.2 10.1 18.2