Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#252
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#213
Pace67.6#207
Improvement-3.8#329

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#302
First Shot-4.5#310
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#193
Layup/Dunks-3.4#302
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#55
Freethrows-1.4#285
Improvement-0.5#213

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#177
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#331
Layups/Dunks-1.0#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#107
Freethrows-0.3#218
Improvement-3.3#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 25.1% 37.4% 13.3%
.500 or above in Conference 3.6% 6.4% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 7.5% 23.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 410 - 413 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 201   @ Georgia L 51-58 29%     0 - 1 -6.1 -20.4 +13.8
  Nov 18, 2021 242   Ball St. W 73-60 48%     1 - 1 +8.5 -4.7 +13.0
  Nov 19, 2021 321   Green Bay W 63-60 70%     2 - 1 -7.2 -13.6 +6.6
  Nov 21, 2021 175   UNC Greensboro W 74-71 OT 34%     3 - 1 +2.5 +4.3 -1.8
  Nov 24, 2021 347   North Dakota W 65-56 86%     4 - 1 -7.4 -11.5 +5.2
  Nov 28, 2021 313   North Florida W 84-69 73%     5 - 1 +3.8 +9.2 -4.8
  Dec 01, 2021 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 77-61 52%     6 - 1 +10.7 -2.1 +12.3
  Dec 04, 2021 293   Stetson W 72-65 70%     7 - 1 -3.3 -6.7 +3.3
  Dec 11, 2021 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 88-92 4OT 42%     7 - 2 -6.9 -15.1 +9.6
  Dec 15, 2021 136   @ Jacksonville St. L 59-66 19%     7 - 3 -2.7 -5.6 +2.1
  Dec 30, 2021 184   Old Dominion L 77-82 44%     7 - 4 0 - 1 -8.4 +3.3 -11.7
  Jan 05, 2022 348   Bethune-Cookman W 68-65 86%     8 - 4 -13.5 -9.8 -3.7
  Jan 08, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky L 71-84 14%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -6.3 +1.9 -8.4
  Jan 13, 2022 50   @ UAB L 56-84 7%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -16.0 -9.8 -7.0
  Jan 15, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 39-50 23%     8 - 7 0 - 4 -8.2 -24.8 +15.0
  Jan 20, 2022 200   Marshall L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 22, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 27, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 168   @ UTEP L 61-68 23%    
  Feb 03, 2022 309   Southern Miss W 68-62 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 200   @ Marshall L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 17, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 19, 2022 167   Rice L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 24, 2022 195   @ Charlotte L 64-70 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion L 60-67 26%    
  Mar 03, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic L 67-70 41%    
  Mar 05, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-72 21%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 5 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.4 2.1 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.1 0.8 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.1 2.7 0.1 13.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 5.2 9.8 4.8 0.5 21.0 11th
12th 0.8 6.0 10.0 5.4 0.5 0.0 22.5 12th
13th 0.8 4.7 7.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 16.5 13th
14th 0.6 2.3 2.9 1.2 0.1 7.2 14th
Total 0.6 3.2 8.4 15.0 19.0 18.8 15.4 10.4 5.7 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.2
10-8 0.7% 0.7
9-9 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.5
8-10 5.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.6
7-11 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 10.3
6-12 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 18.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.8
4-14 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.0
3-15 15.0% 15.0
2-16 8.4% 8.4
1-17 3.2% 3.2
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%