Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#159
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#144
Pace71.6#92
Improvement+0.3#171

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#236
First Shot-2.3#253
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#180
Layup/Dunks-0.9#202
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows+0.4#147
Improvement-2.3#309

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#99
First Shot+2.2#104
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#153
Layups/Dunks+2.9#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#71
Freethrows-3.5#343
Improvement+2.6#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 79.6% 82.8% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.9% 43.4% 17.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 1.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round1.9% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 411 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 71-51 93%     1 - 0 +3.5 +0.7 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2021 183   Winthrop W 76-65 64%     2 - 0 +7.6 -4.9 +12.0
  Nov 19, 2021 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-87 41%     2 - 1 -10.3 -3.2 -5.9
  Nov 23, 2021 291   Rider W 60-54 78%     3 - 1 -1.7 -15.3 +13.6
  Nov 24, 2021 196   Mercer W 82-58 57%     4 - 1 +22.5 +3.6 +18.1
  Dec 01, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 73-61 89%     5 - 1 -1.0 -4.6 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2021 51   @ Murray St. L 87-93 14%     5 - 2 +5.8 +9.2 -2.7
  Dec 11, 2021 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 84-75 78%     6 - 2 +1.0 +3.5 -2.9
  Dec 15, 2021 109   @ Mississippi L 52-62 26%     6 - 3 -3.2 -15.7 +12.6
  Dec 19, 2021 173   Coastal Carolina W 84-80 62%     7 - 3 +1.1 +12.3 -11.0
  Dec 22, 2021 100   @ Chattanooga L 65-77 23%     7 - 4 -4.2 -4.2 -0.4
  Jan 06, 2022 167   @ Rice L 61-65 41%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -1.6 -15.6 +14.1
  Jan 08, 2022 83   @ North Texas L 63-70 19%     7 - 6 0 - 2 +2.5 +0.8 +1.3
  Jan 13, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic W 70-57 58%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +11.2 -0.7 +12.8
  Jan 15, 2022 252   Florida International W 50-39 77%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +3.6 -17.5 +22.6
  Jan 22, 2022 309   Southern Miss W 72-61 86%    
  Jan 27, 2022 200   @ Marshall L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky L 68-74 26%    
  Feb 05, 2022 50   @ UAB L 65-77 12%    
  Feb 10, 2022 184   Old Dominion W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 13, 2022 195   Charlotte W 71-67 68%    
  Feb 17, 2022 252   @ Florida International W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 19, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 24, 2022 200   Marshall W 78-74 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 71-72 47%    
  Mar 02, 2022 195   @ Charlotte L 68-69 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion L 65-66 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 3.2 1.2 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.3 2.3 0.2 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 7.1 4.0 0.4 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.9 6.3 0.9 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.3 4.7 7.9 1.9 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 7.8 3.3 0.2 14.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 6.1 4.0 0.3 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.9 0.4 7.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.2 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.3 6.5 12.4 17.9 20.5 17.9 12.4 6.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 13.5% 13.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 2.6% 8.2% 8.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-7 6.5% 5.4% 5.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.2
10-8 12.4% 3.5% 3.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.9
9-9 17.9% 1.9% 1.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.6
8-10 20.5% 1.3% 1.3% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 20.2
7-11 17.9% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.8
6-12 12.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
5-13 6.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 98.1 0.0%