UAB
Conference USA
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#50
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#79
Pace71.1#116
Improvement-1.1#223

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#49
First Shot+3.8#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#76
Layup/Dunks-0.3#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#166
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement-0.8#229

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#70
First Shot+4.9#40
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks+0.9#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#69
Freethrows-0.2#207
Improvement-0.4#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 4.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.7% 46.6% 35.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.5% 12.6% 3.5%
Average Seed 11.1 10.5 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 48.7% 68.5% 31.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 4.4% 1.9%
First Round39.1% 44.5% 34.3%
Second Round14.7% 18.0% 11.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 5.9% 3.8%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.7% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Away) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 34 - 5
Quad 38 - 212 - 7
Quad 413 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 249   UNC Asheville W 102-77 93%     1 - 0 +17.8 +21.7 -4.6
  Nov 12, 2021 145   Morehead St. W 85-71 85%     2 - 0 +12.6 +10.8 +1.6
  Nov 18, 2021 113   @ South Carolina L 63-66 61%     2 - 1 +3.6 -6.1 +9.8
  Nov 21, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 86-41 97%     3 - 1 +31.1 +6.2 +22.3
  Nov 25, 2021 193   New Mexico W 86-73 84%     4 - 1 +11.6 +4.7 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2021 39   San Francisco L 61-63 45%     4 - 2 +8.6 -4.1 +12.7
  Dec 01, 2021 174   East Tennessee St. W 70-56 87%     5 - 2 +11.0 -2.4 +14.2
  Dec 04, 2021 71   @ Saint Louis W 77-72 47%     6 - 2 +15.2 +13.5 +2.0
  Dec 14, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 79-61 97%     7 - 2 +5.2 -6.0 +9.8
  Dec 18, 2021 43   West Virginia L 59-65 56%     7 - 3 +1.8 -4.7 +6.2
  Dec 22, 2021 357   Mississippi Valley W 100-58 99%     8 - 3 +18.0 +3.3 +9.9
  Dec 30, 2021 168   UTEP W 75-62 87%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +10.4 +4.3 +6.3
  Jan 01, 2022 318   Texas San Antonio W 87-59 97%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +15.9 +10.8 +5.8
  Jan 06, 2022 83   @ North Texas W 69-63 50%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +15.5 +13.6 +2.9
  Jan 08, 2022 167   @ Rice L 80-85 75%     11 - 4 3 - 1 -2.6 +1.7 -4.0
  Jan 13, 2022 252   Florida International W 84-56 93%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +20.6 +11.9 +9.4
  Jan 15, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic W 76-65 85%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +9.2 +0.8 +8.5
  Jan 22, 2022 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 27, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 200   @ Marshall W 83-74 78%    
  Feb 05, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 77-65 88%    
  Feb 10, 2022 309   Southern Miss W 79-59 97%    
  Feb 13, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 17, 2022 167   Rice W 82-70 88%    
  Feb 19, 2022 83   North Texas W 65-60 69%    
  Feb 24, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 93%    
  Feb 26, 2022 168   @ UTEP W 72-65 73%    
  Mar 02, 2022 309   @ Southern Miss W 77-62 91%    
  Mar 05, 2022 82   Louisiana Tech W 75-70 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 7.6 18.1 16.5 5.5 48.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 8.0 13.7 6.3 0.5 30.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.5 6.5 2.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 8.4 16.2 23.7 24.5 17.0 5.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 5.5    5.5
16-2 97.0% 16.5    14.0 2.5
15-3 73.9% 18.1    9.7 7.6 0.8
14-4 31.9% 7.6    2.2 3.9 1.4 0.1
13-5 6.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.7% 48.7 31.5 14.4 2.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 5.5% 75.4% 50.9% 24.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.4 49.8%
16-2 17.0% 57.4% 45.2% 12.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.2 2.5 0.1 7.2 22.4%
15-3 24.5% 43.7% 39.3% 4.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.3 0.8 13.8 7.4%
14-4 23.7% 36.3% 35.1% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.4 1.8 0.0 15.1 1.8%
13-5 16.2% 28.9% 28.7% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.2 2.6 1.8 0.2 11.5 0.3%
12-6 8.4% 22.7% 22.7% 12.6 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 6.5
11-7 3.5% 18.1% 18.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.8
10-8 0.9% 17.1% 17.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 0.2% 21.1% 21.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.7% 35.8% 4.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.2 8.7 17.0 5.9 0.5 0.0 59.3 7.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 5.8 0.2 0.8 3.8 15.8 25.6 26.2 14.2 7.0 4.3 1.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 58.6% 9.4 0.8 0.8 3.8 10.3 12.4 13.5 15.3 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 46.2% 10.2 0.8 4.5 7.2 15.1 10.5 8.0