Marshall
Conference USA
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#200
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#236
Pace80.0#6
Improvement-4.2#341

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#163
First Shot+0.2#170
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks+2.6#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#258
Freethrows-1.0#262
Improvement-2.0#290

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#237
First Shot-3.0#276
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#105
Layups/Dunks-0.5#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#141
Freethrows-0.6#242
Improvement-2.2#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 6.1% 9.9% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 12.2% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 3.1% 12.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 34 - 84 - 15
Quad 47 - 311 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 206   Wright St. W 96-88 61%     1 - 0 +3.5 -1.9 +3.8
  Nov 18, 2021 225   Campbell L 65-67 65%     1 - 1 -7.5 -9.3 +1.7
  Nov 21, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 80-66 74%     2 - 1 +5.8 +6.0 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2021 165   Louisiana W 93-79 54%     3 - 1 +11.5 +3.5 +5.5
  Nov 27, 2021 27   @ Indiana L 79-90 7%     3 - 2 +4.1 +8.7 -3.7
  Dec 01, 2021 152   @ Akron L 86-88 32%     3 - 3 +1.1 +11.3 -10.2
  Dec 04, 2021 190   Duquesne W 72-71 58%     4 - 3 -2.8 -3.3 +0.4
  Dec 11, 2021 216   @ Eastern Kentucky W 80-69 44%     5 - 3 +11.0 -2.8 +12.5
  Dec 15, 2021 84   @ Ohio L 65-75 15%     5 - 4 -0.7 -8.0 +8.0
  Dec 18, 2021 101   Northern Iowa L 60-75 34%     5 - 5 -12.5 -12.7 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2021 88   @ Toledo L 63-95 16%     5 - 6 -23.0 -13.1 -6.5
  Dec 30, 2021 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 56-79 15%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -13.4 -13.8 +1.0
  Jan 08, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic L 77-90 51%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -14.8 -0.9 -13.5
  Jan 13, 2022 83   North Texas L 65-69 28%     5 - 9 0 - 3 +0.5 +4.2 -4.2
  Jan 15, 2022 167   Rice L 77-87 54%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -12.6 -1.3 -11.1
  Jan 20, 2022 252   @ Florida International W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 22, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-80 30%    
  Jan 27, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 76-75 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 50   UAB L 74-83 22%    
  Feb 03, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 195   @ Charlotte L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 10, 2022 252   Florida International W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 13, 2022 168   @ UTEP L 72-76 34%    
  Feb 17, 2022 184   Old Dominion W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 19, 2022 195   Charlotte W 77-75 60%    
  Feb 24, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee L 74-78 32%    
  Mar 02, 2022 112   Western Kentucky L 78-81 39%    
  Mar 05, 2022 112   @ Western Kentucky L 75-83 21%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.6 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.3 3.7 3.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.3 6.1 1.3 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.6 3.0 0.2 15.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.9 10.4 5.5 0.4 21.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.3 8.2 4.7 0.5 18.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.4 13th
14th 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.0 14th
Total 0.3 1.4 5.1 9.9 15.7 18.8 18.1 13.9 9.3 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 7.7% 7.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.5% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
9-9 4.9% 2.5% 2.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
8-10 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.1
7-11 13.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 13.8
6-12 18.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.0
5-13 18.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.7
4-14 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.9
2-16 5.1% 5.1
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%