Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#112
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#141
Pace72.1#87
Improvement+3.4#45

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#102
First Shot+4.4#53
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#307
Layup/Dunks+2.3#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
Freethrows+1.7#63
Improvement+2.2#62

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#122
First Shot+0.4#164
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#79
Layups/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#351
Freethrows+3.0#17
Improvement+1.2#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 10.0% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 90.2% 95.5% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 92.6% 76.9%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.5% 10.0% 6.8%
Second Round1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 11
Quad 410 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 79-74 95%     1 - 0 -9.7 -9.2 -1.1
  Nov 12, 2021 91   Minnesota L 69-73 42%     1 - 1 +2.3 -0.7 +3.1
  Nov 14, 2021 113   South Carolina L 64-75 50%     1 - 2 -6.9 -9.0 +3.1
  Nov 19, 2021 41   @ Memphis L 62-74 20%     1 - 3 +1.1 -11.6 +14.0
  Nov 24, 2021 334   Alabama A&M W 88-62 94%     2 - 3 +12.1 +9.1 +1.8
  Nov 27, 2021 324   Tennessee Martin W 81-66 94%     3 - 3 +2.0 +0.6 +1.2
  Dec 04, 2021 216   Eastern Kentucky W 85-80 81%     4 - 3 +0.0 +6.0 -6.3
  Dec 08, 2021 103   Buffalo L 67-77 58%     4 - 4 -8.0 -6.4 -1.7
  Dec 11, 2021 109   Mississippi W 71-48 49%     5 - 4 +27.3 +6.5 +22.1
  Dec 18, 2021 86   Louisville W 82-72 50%     6 - 4 +14.1 +11.5 +2.4
  Dec 22, 2021 3   @ Kentucky L 60-95 6%     6 - 5 -13.3 -7.2 -3.9
  Jan 01, 2022 82   @ Louisiana Tech L 73-74 30%     6 - 6 0 - 1 +8.6 +4.1 +4.5
  Jan 08, 2022 252   Florida International W 84-71 86%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +5.6 +10.7 -4.9
  Jan 13, 2022 167   Rice W 80-66 74%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +11.4 +2.0 +9.3
  Jan 15, 2022 83   North Texas L 60-65 49%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -0.5 -3.1 +2.1
  Jan 20, 2022 151   @ Florida Atlantic W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 252   @ Florida International W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 27, 2022 50   UAB L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 159   Middle Tennessee W 74-68 74%    
  Feb 03, 2022 195   @ Charlotte W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 05, 2022 184   @ Old Dominion W 70-67 57%    
  Feb 10, 2022 151   Florida Atlantic W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 13, 2022 318   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 17, 2022 195   Charlotte W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 184   Old Dominion W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 159   @ Middle Tennessee W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 02, 2022 200   @ Marshall W 81-78 61%    
  Mar 05, 2022 200   Marshall W 83-75 79%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.6 0.5 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 6.8 6.0 1.4 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.3 4.2 11.1 8.5 1.9 0.1 26.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 8.4 5.5 0.9 0.0 17.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 3.1 1.1 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.4 8.0 12.9 18.2 19.4 17.2 11.2 4.9 1.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 61.3% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.5% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.3% 29.2% 28.5% 0.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.1%
14-4 4.9% 17.9% 17.8% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 0.1%
13-5 11.2% 15.8% 15.8% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
12-6 17.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.2 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 15.1
11-7 19.4% 8.5% 8.5% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 17.7
10-8 18.2% 5.0% 5.0% 13.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 17.3
9-9 12.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.5
8-10 8.0% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.8
7-11 4.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.2
6-12 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 91.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.9 0.6 1.1 6.1 13.3 13.3 24.9 29.3 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 1.4% 11.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%