Kennesaw St.
Atlantic Sun
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.2#330
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#293
Pace70.0#169
Improvement+0.2#151

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#323
First Shot-5.6#312
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#198
Layup/Dunks-2.6#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#340
Freethrows+3.4#35
Improvement+0.0#156

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#308
First Shot-2.6#247
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#293
Layups/Dunks+2.8#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.0#350
Freethrows+2.1#75
Improvement+0.2#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 1.1% 2.7% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.5% 18.1% 10.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 36.8% 28.6% 40.4%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Neutral) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 45 - 96 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 44   @ Creighton L 55-81 2%     0 - 1 -12.2 -17.7 +7.2
  Nov 07, 2019 133   @ Drake L 55-86 7%     0 - 2 -25.9 -13.1 -14.6
  Nov 11, 2019 218   @ Mercer L 62-74 15%     0 - 3 -12.1 -20.3 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2019 269   Monmouth L 66-72 30%    
  Nov 23, 2019 197   Iona L 71-80 20%    
  Dec 02, 2019 305   @ Elon L 67-72 32%    
  Dec 04, 2019 90   @ UNC Greensboro L 56-76 3%    
  Dec 07, 2019 124   Florida International L 74-85 16%    
  Dec 13, 2019 196   Gardner-Webb L 66-72 29%    
  Dec 16, 2019 113   @ Murray St. L 64-81 6%    
  Dec 18, 2019 59   @ Belmont L 66-89 2%    
  Dec 22, 2019 126   Wofford L 67-78 17%    
  Dec 29, 2019 64   @ Iowa L 65-88 2%    
  Jan 02, 2020 157   North Florida L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 04, 2020 337   Stetson W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 09, 2020 213   @ Lipscomb L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 16, 2020 288   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 18, 2020 210   @ NJIT L 64-76 15%    
  Jan 23, 2020 297   North Alabama L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 273   Jacksonville L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 30, 2020 85   @ Liberty L 54-74 4%    
  Feb 01, 2020 157   @ North Florida L 68-82 11%    
  Feb 08, 2020 213   Lipscomb L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 13, 2020 288   Florida Gulf Coast L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 15, 2020 337   @ Stetson L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 20, 2020 297   @ North Alabama L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 22, 2020 273   @ Jacksonville L 62-70 24%    
  Feb 27, 2020 85   Liberty L 57-71 11%    
  Feb 29, 2020 210   NJIT L 67-73 32%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 7.9 4.0 0.5 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 7.7 9.2 4.1 0.5 0.0 24.5 8th
9th 2.0 6.1 8.5 6.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 25.5 9th
Total 2.0 6.3 11.2 15.1 16.2 15.1 12.5 9.0 5.9 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 65.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 24.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-5 0.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
10-6 1.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
9-7 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
8-8 5.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.9
7-9 9.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.9
6-10 12.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-11 15.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 15.0
4-12 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.2
3-13 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
2-14 11.2% 11.2
1-15 6.3% 6.3
0-16 2.0% 2.0
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%