Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#58
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#45
Pace61.4#343
Improvement-0.2#307

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#44
First Shot+5.9#44
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks+1.2#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#14
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#141
Freethrows-1.7#275
Improvement-0.2#347

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#85
First Shot+3.1#82
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#191
Layups/Dunks+1.3#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#336
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#201
Freethrows+5.0#11
Improvement+0.1#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 2.7% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 9.2% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.1% 53.8% 30.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.9% 50.6% 27.8%
Average Seed 8.9 8.5 9.4
.500 or above 89.6% 95.8% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 77.5% 53.1%
Conference Champion 2.7% 5.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 1.5%
First Four7.4% 7.6% 7.2%
First Round36.1% 49.6% 26.8%
Second Round16.1% 23.4% 11.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 6.5% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.2% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 40.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 37 - 10
Quad 35 - 112 - 11
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 95-57 99%     1 - 0 +18.6 +13.0 +5.9
  Nov 10, 2022 299   Lehigh W 78-52 95%     2 - 0 +15.4 +5.6 +11.3
  Nov 13, 2022 288   William & Mary W 94-77 95%     3 - 0 +7.4 +23.6 -14.7
  Nov 17, 2022 145   Old Dominion W 75-71 76%     4 - 0 +5.5 +8.4 -2.7
  Nov 18, 2022 44   Penn St. W 61-59 45%     5 - 0 +12.1 -0.9 +13.2
  Nov 20, 2022 80   @ College of Charleston L 75-77 47%     5 - 1 +7.6 +0.7 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2022 304   Charleston Southern W 69-64 96%     6 - 1 -6.0 -0.9 -4.4
  Nov 28, 2022 165   Minnesota W 67-57 86%     7 - 1 +7.2 -0.6 +8.5
  Dec 04, 2022 23   North Carolina L 69-71 41%    
  Dec 07, 2022 72   Dayton W 62-58 64%    
  Dec 11, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. L 65-67 43%    
  Dec 17, 2022 244   Grambling St. W 74-58 93%    
  Dec 21, 2022 146   @ Boston College W 65-61 66%    
  Dec 31, 2022 70   @ Wake Forest L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 04, 2023 76   Clemson W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 07, 2023 30   North Carolina St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 11, 2023 96   @ Syracuse W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 18, 2023 13   @ Virginia L 56-67 16%    
  Jan 21, 2023 76   @ Clemson L 67-68 44%    
  Jan 23, 2023 19   Duke L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 28, 2023 96   Syracuse W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 31, 2023 37   @ Miami (FL) L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 04, 2023 13   Virginia L 59-64 34%    
  Feb 08, 2023 146   Boston College W 68-58 82%    
  Feb 11, 2023 78   @ Notre Dame L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 15, 2023 108   @ Georgia Tech W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 105   Pittsburgh W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 21, 2023 37   Miami (FL) W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 19   @ Duke L 61-71 19%    
  Feb 28, 2023 213   @ Louisville W 69-61 78%    
  Mar 04, 2023 187   Florida St. W 75-62 87%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.2 1.4 0.2 7.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 4.1 1.7 0.2 8.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 4.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.1 1.3 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.7 1.9 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.2 0.2 8.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.7 9.9 12.3 13.9 13.6 11.8 9.5 6.7 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 93.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 80.6% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 43.8% 0.9    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 13.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.9% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.2% 99.1% 12.5% 86.6% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.9%
15-5 4.1% 97.8% 12.3% 85.5% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.5%
14-6 6.7% 94.3% 8.8% 85.5% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 93.8%
13-7 9.5% 85.0% 6.9% 78.1% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.4 83.9%
12-8 11.8% 65.2% 5.9% 59.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.6 1.8 0.3 4.1 63.0%
11-9 13.6% 44.1% 4.7% 39.4% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.6 41.4%
10-10 13.9% 21.9% 3.8% 18.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 18.8%
9-11 12.3% 8.4% 3.3% 5.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.3 5.2%
8-12 9.9% 3.2% 2.7% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.6 0.5%
7-13 6.7% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6
6-14 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-15 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 40.1% 5.0% 35.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.2 8.0 7.1 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 59.9 36.9%