Tennessee
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.6#5
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#16
Pace68.6#185
Improvement+0.2#66

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#50
First Shot-0.3#182
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#7
Layup/Dunks-5.3#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#97
Freethrows+3.8#25
Improvement+0.1#133

Defense
Total Defense+13.6#2
First Shot+13.4#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#178
Layups/Dunks+2.9#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.5#5
Freethrows-2.0#287
Improvement+0.1#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.8% 6.8% 4.0%
#1 Seed 25.4% 25.5% 12.0%
Top 2 Seed 47.9% 48.0% 21.3%
Top 4 Seed 77.3% 77.4% 44.0%
Top 6 Seed 91.7% 91.8% 73.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.1% 93.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.8% 98.8% 92.6%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 4.6
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.2% 92.0%
Conference Champion 43.8% 43.9% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
First Round98.9% 98.9% 93.3%
Second Round87.9% 87.9% 82.7%
Sweet Sixteen60.3% 60.3% 53.3%
Elite Eight35.7% 35.7% 24.0%
Final Four20.0% 20.0% 16.0%
Championship Game10.9% 10.9% 8.0%
National Champion5.8% 5.8% 2.7%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 5
Quad 25 - 115 - 6
Quad 33 - 018 - 7
Quad 46 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 314   Tennessee Tech W 75-43 99%     1 - 0 +20.0 -1.9 +23.5
  Nov 13, 2022 50   Colorado L 66-78 80%     1 - 1 -2.3 -9.1 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2022 98   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-50 93%     2 - 1 +33.1 +14.0 +21.4
  Nov 23, 2022 54   Butler W 71-45 81%     3 - 1 +35.3 +5.8 +30.1
  Nov 24, 2022 71   USC W 73-66 OT 84%     4 - 1 +14.8 +1.3 +13.1
  Nov 25, 2022 17   Kansas W 64-50 60%     5 - 1 +29.9 +2.6 +28.0
  Nov 30, 2022 354   McNeese St. W 76-40 99.6%    6 - 1 +18.5 -2.4 +23.2
  Dec 04, 2022 291   Alcorn St. W 79-51 99.6%   
  Dec 07, 2022 247   Eastern Kentucky W 81-55 99%    
  Dec 11, 2022 11   Maryland W 67-66 55%    
  Dec 17, 2022 16   @ Arizona L 77-78 47%    
  Dec 21, 2022 279   Austin Peay W 75-48 99%    
  Dec 28, 2022 64   @ Mississippi W 67-60 75%    
  Jan 03, 2023 26   Mississippi St. W 62-54 78%    
  Jan 07, 2023 231   @ South Carolina W 72-53 96%    
  Jan 10, 2023 88   Vanderbilt W 74-58 92%    
  Jan 14, 2023 18   Kentucky W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 17, 2023 26   @ Mississippi St. W 59-57 59%    
  Jan 21, 2023 62   @ LSU W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 25, 2023 124   Georgia W 72-53 95%    
  Jan 28, 2023 4   Texas W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 01, 2023 66   @ Florida W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 04, 2023 29   Auburn W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 08, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 11, 2023 51   Missouri W 81-69 86%    
  Feb 15, 2023 12   Alabama W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 18   @ Kentucky L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 21, 2023 56   @ Texas A&M W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 25, 2023 231   South Carolina W 75-50 99%    
  Feb 28, 2023 15   Arkansas W 69-64 68%    
  Mar 04, 2023 29   @ Auburn W 65-62 60%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 7.2 12.9 12.2 7.4 2.4 43.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.7 8.1 4.2 0.8 0.0 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.4 5.5 1.9 0.2 12.9 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.6 11.3 15.1 17.3 17.3 13.0 7.4 2.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
17-1 99.8% 7.4    7.1 0.2
16-2 93.8% 12.2    10.2 1.9 0.1
15-3 74.7% 12.9    8.1 4.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 41.9% 7.2    2.5 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.0% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.8% 43.8 30.5 10.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.4% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 1.1 2.1 0.3 100.0%
17-1 7.4% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 1.2 5.9 1.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 13.0% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.5 7.8 4.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 17.3% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1.9 6.3 7.4 2.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 17.3% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 2.6 2.6 6.0 5.3 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.1% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 3.4 0.6 2.7 4.9 4.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 11.3% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 4.4 0.1 0.4 2.2 3.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 100.0%
11-7 7.6% 99.7% 14.4% 85.4% 5.4 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 4.6% 99.0% 11.9% 87.1% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
9-9 2.4% 94.8% 8.5% 86.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.3%
8-10 1.1% 73.5% 7.1% 66.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 71.4%
7-11 0.5% 52.3% 6.5% 45.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 49.0%
6-12 0.2% 22.0% 2.4% 19.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 20.0%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 22.4% 76.7% 3.1 25.4 22.5 16.7 12.8 8.7 5.7 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 98.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6