Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+25.2#2
Pace55.0#362
Improvement+0.0#119

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#9
First Shot+11.3#4
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#259
Layup/Dunks+5.1#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#99
Freethrows+5.0#6
Improvement+0.2#34

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#41
First Shot+5.4#46
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#116
Layups/Dunks+0.6#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+3.2#24
Improvement-0.2#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 13.1% 13.4% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 29.5% 30.1% 8.3%
Top 4 Seed 61.5% 62.3% 30.9%
Top 6 Seed 83.0% 83.7% 58.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 98.5% 93.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.8% 98.0% 92.2%
Average Seed 4.1 4.0 5.9
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.3% 95.7%
Conference Champion 52.8% 53.6% 23.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 3.7%
First Round97.9% 98.1% 92.2%
Second Round79.6% 80.0% 64.6%
Sweet Sixteen47.9% 48.4% 29.7%
Elite Eight25.2% 25.5% 12.7%
Final Four12.9% 13.1% 5.5%
Championship Game6.0% 6.1% 2.7%
National Champion2.8% 2.9% 0.9%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 3
Quad 25 - 112 - 4
Quad 36 - 117 - 5
Quad 47 - 024 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 269   NC Central W 73-61 98%     1 - 0 +3.5 +9.7 -4.1
  Nov 11, 2022 329   Monmouth W 89-42 99%     2 - 0 +32.8 +21.9 +17.0
  Nov 18, 2022 19   Baylor W 86-79 57%     3 - 0 +21.8 +19.8 +2.3
  Nov 20, 2022 10   Illinois W 70-61 46%     4 - 0 +26.4 +12.2 +14.8
  Nov 25, 2022 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-45 99%     5 - 0 +10.1 +2.3 +10.6
  Nov 29, 2022 58   @ Michigan W 70-68 67%     6 - 0 +13.9 +10.5 +3.7
  Dec 03, 2022 188   Florida St. W 75-55 97%    
  Dec 06, 2022 60   James Madison W 73-62 85%    
  Dec 17, 2022 1   Houston L 57-59 44%    
  Dec 20, 2022 36   @ Miami (FL) W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 28, 2022 326   Albany W 78-48 99.7%   
  Dec 31, 2022 113   @ Georgia Tech W 67-57 81%    
  Jan 03, 2023 106   @ Pittsburgh W 68-59 80%    
  Jan 07, 2023 97   Syracuse W 69-55 91%    
  Jan 10, 2023 22   North Carolina W 69-64 69%    
  Jan 14, 2023 188   @ Florida St. W 72-58 90%    
  Jan 18, 2023 59   Virginia Tech W 67-56 84%    
  Jan 21, 2023 66   @ Wake Forest W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 151   Boston College W 69-51 95%    
  Jan 30, 2023 97   @ Syracuse W 66-58 78%    
  Feb 04, 2023 59   @ Virginia Tech W 64-59 67%    
  Feb 07, 2023 31   North Carolina St. W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 18   Duke W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 210   @ Louisville W 69-53 92%    
  Feb 18, 2023 77   Notre Dame W 70-57 86%    
  Feb 22, 2023 151   @ Boston College W 66-54 86%    
  Feb 25, 2023 22   @ North Carolina L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 28, 2023 76   Clemson W 70-58 87%    
  Mar 04, 2023 210   Louisville W 72-50 97%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 8.8 14.0 14.5 9.1 3.2 52.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.8 7.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 3.6 0.9 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.8 6.6 10.3 13.5 16.7 17.6 15.2 9.2 3.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.2    3.2
19-1 99.6% 9.1    8.9 0.2
18-2 95.6% 14.5    12.7 1.8 0.0
17-3 79.3% 14.0    9.8 3.9 0.3
16-4 52.6% 8.8    4.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.7% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.8% 52.8 39.3 10.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.2% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 1.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 9.2% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.6 4.9 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.2% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 2.1 4.2 6.2 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.6% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 2.9 1.4 4.7 6.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.7% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.9 0.2 1.2 4.9 5.8 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.5% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 4.7 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 10.3% 99.1% 16.9% 82.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
13-7 6.6% 98.3% 12.9% 85.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
12-8 3.8% 94.0% 12.1% 81.9% 8.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 93.2%
11-9 2.0% 87.4% 9.0% 78.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 86.2%
10-10 1.1% 67.3% 5.3% 62.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 65.5%
9-11 0.4% 32.5% 9.0% 23.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 25.9%
8-12 0.2% 9.7% 1.9% 7.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.9%
7-13 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.4% 24.9% 73.5% 4.1 13.1 16.4 17.4 14.6 12.1 9.4 5.7 3.9 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 97.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.2 78.0 21.1 0.9