San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#25
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#24
Pace72.1#93
Improvement+0.0#111

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#47
First Shot+6.5#32
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#253
Layup/Dunks+3.5#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#198
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement+0.2#60

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#23
First Shot+5.9#37
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#38
Layups/Dunks+3.6#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#79
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-0.1#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.5% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 9.1% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 25.4% 26.6% 9.2%
Top 6 Seed 46.8% 48.5% 23.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 92.8% 80.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.4% 89.5% 74.6%
Average Seed 6.4 6.3 7.6
.500 or above 99.4% 99.6% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.2% 93.4%
Conference Champion 45.7% 46.6% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.1% 4.8%
First Round90.4% 91.3% 78.2%
Second Round59.5% 60.6% 43.7%
Sweet Sixteen26.5% 27.4% 14.3%
Elite Eight11.7% 12.1% 6.1%
Final Four4.7% 4.9% 1.8%
Championship Game1.9% 1.9% 0.6%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 5
Quad 26 - 210 - 6
Quad 36 - 116 - 7
Quad 46 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 80-57 95%     1 - 0 +17.5 +3.3 +14.4
  Nov 11, 2022 87   BYU W 82-75 84%     2 - 0 +10.2 +1.4 +8.0
  Nov 15, 2022 79   @ Stanford W 74-62 64%     3 - 0 +22.0 +10.6 +11.8
  Nov 21, 2022 23   Ohio St. W 88-77 49%     4 - 0 +25.1 +15.1 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2022 6   Arizona L 70-87 33%     4 - 1 +1.4 -3.4 +6.0
  Nov 23, 2022 15   Arkansas L 74-78 OT 40%     4 - 2 +12.5 +0.3 +12.8
  Nov 29, 2022 49   UC Irvine W 72-69 75%     5 - 2 +9.7 +4.6 +5.0
  Dec 05, 2022 156   Troy W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 10, 2022 32   St. Mary's W 63-62 54%    
  Dec 12, 2022 215   Kennesaw St. W 82-62 97%    
  Dec 20, 2022 283   UC San Diego W 79-56 98%    
  Dec 28, 2022 219   Air Force W 73-53 97%    
  Dec 31, 2022 78   @ UNLV W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 07, 2023 146   @ Wyoming W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 10, 2023 69   Nevada W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 14, 2023 57   New Mexico W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 18, 2023 72   @ Colorado St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 219   @ Air Force W 70-56 89%    
  Jan 25, 2023 34   Utah St. W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 185   San Jose St. W 77-60 94%    
  Jan 31, 2023 69   @ Nevada W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 03, 2023 61   Boise St. W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 34   @ Utah St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 78   UNLV W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 15, 2023 154   @ Fresno St. W 67-57 81%    
  Feb 21, 2023 72   Colorado St. W 73-64 80%    
  Feb 25, 2023 57   @ New Mexico W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 28, 2023 61   @ Boise St. W 65-63 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 146   Wyoming W 76-61 91%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.8 9.2 13.2 11.0 6.1 1.9 45.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.9 6.8 2.3 0.3 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.2 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.3 8.8 12.4 15.8 16.6 15.5 11.3 6.1 1.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 100.0% 6.1    6.0 0.1
16-2 97.3% 11.0    10.1 0.9 0.0
15-3 85.0% 13.2    9.7 3.3 0.2
14-4 55.1% 9.2    4.6 3.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 23.7% 3.8    0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.7% 45.7 33.3 9.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 100.0% 62.0% 38.0% 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 6.1% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 2.3 1.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 11.3% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 3.5 0.7 1.9 3.0 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 15.5% 99.9% 37.2% 62.7% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.1 4.2 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 16.6% 99.5% 32.5% 67.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.5 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
13-5 15.8% 98.1% 27.8% 70.4% 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.1 4.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.3 97.4%
12-6 12.4% 93.8% 22.1% 71.7% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 92.1%
11-7 8.8% 87.1% 21.5% 65.6% 9.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.7 1.2 0.1 1.1 83.6%
10-8 5.3% 68.9% 16.6% 52.3% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.6 62.7%
9-9 3.2% 49.6% 14.2% 35.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 41.2%
8-10 1.8% 22.3% 9.1% 13.2% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 14.5%
7-11 0.7% 14.1% 10.0% 4.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.5%
6-12 0.3% 10.2% 10.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.0% 31.1% 60.9% 6.4 3.3 5.3 6.9 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.6 10.5 10.0 8.2 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 88.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.5 61.0 33.0 5.5 0.5