Wyoming
Mountain West
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#146
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#285
Pace63.1#324
Improvement-0.5#328

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#104
First Shot+4.6#57
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#312
Layup/Dunks+3.9#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#77
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+0.0#111

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#205
First Shot-2.3#248
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#85
Layups/Dunks+2.6#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
Freethrows+1.0#127
Improvement-0.5#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 15.1
.500 or above 10.4% 15.3% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 18.4% 22.2% 13.6%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 15.1% 22.8%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 22 - 63 - 12
Quad 33 - 56 - 17
Quad 45 - 210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 249   Nicholls St. W 79-68 80%     1 - 0 +3.6 -5.1 +7.6
  Nov 13, 2022 273   SE Louisiana L 72-76 83%     1 - 1 -12.6 -8.1 -4.4
  Nov 18, 2022 323   Howard W 78-71 86%     2 - 1 -3.3 +5.2 -7.8
  Nov 20, 2022 71   Drake L 56-61 27%     2 - 2 +2.7 -5.6 +7.6
  Nov 21, 2022 151   Boston College L 48-59 51%     2 - 3 -9.8 -13.0 +1.5
  Nov 30, 2022 103   Santa Clara L 85-89 OT 37%     2 - 4 +0.7 +14.4 -13.7
  Dec 03, 2022 128   Grand Canyon W 64-62 56%    
  Dec 06, 2022 261   Texas A&M - Commerce W 70-61 81%    
  Dec 10, 2022 119   Louisiana Tech W 71-70 53%    
  Dec 17, 2022 74   Dayton L 58-64 29%    
  Dec 21, 2022 32   St. Mary's L 56-67 16%    
  Dec 28, 2022 154   @ Fresno St. L 60-63 41%    
  Dec 31, 2022 57   New Mexico L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 07, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 10, 2023 34   @ Utah St. L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 14, 2023 61   Boise St. L 60-64 36%    
  Jan 17, 2023 219   @ Air Force W 63-61 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 72   Colorado St. L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 24, 2023 78   @ UNLV L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 31, 2023 154   Fresno St. W 63-60 62%    
  Feb 04, 2023 185   @ San Jose St. L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 78   UNLV L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 11, 2023 61   @ Boise St. L 57-67 18%    
  Feb 14, 2023 57   @ New Mexico L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 18, 2023 219   Air Force W 66-58 74%    
  Feb 21, 2023 34   Utah St. L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 24, 2023 72   @ Colorado St. L 62-71 20%    
  Feb 27, 2023 69   Nevada L 69-72 37%    
  Mar 04, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 61-76 9%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.1 1.6 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.6 5.9 1.9 0.1 17.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.7 5.6 1.5 0.1 19.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.1 3.9 0.9 0.0 17.0 10th
11th 0.4 1.8 3.7 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.1 11th
Total 0.4 1.8 5.0 8.7 12.2 15.0 14.5 13.0 10.9 8.1 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 84.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 53.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 54.0% 6.3% 47.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.8%
14-4 0.2% 38.3% 8.4% 29.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.7%
13-5 0.8% 15.4% 8.5% 6.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.6%
12-6 1.5% 8.6% 7.0% 1.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.8%
11-7 2.9% 5.8% 5.2% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.7%
10-8 4.8% 4.0% 3.9% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 0.2%
9-9 8.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0
8-10 10.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.7
7-11 13.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.8
6-12 14.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.4
5-13 15.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.9
4-14 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.1
3-15 8.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.7
2-16 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.8% 1.6% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 98.2 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%