American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 Florida Atlantic 72.1%   11   21 - 7 11 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 5 +11.7      +9.2 14 +2.5 104 68.7 171 +10.8 47 +8.9 3
51 SMU 20.9%   18 - 9 10 - 5 20 - 10 12 - 6 +10.0      +5.5 48 +4.4 56 68.6 178 +7.5 84 +8.2 5
68 Memphis 19.5%   21 - 8 10 - 6 22 - 9 11 - 7 +8.2      +5.0 61 +3.2 87 76.6 23 +9.9 58 +6.3 6
87 North Texas 9.1%   13 - 12 8 - 7 15 - 13 10 - 8 +6.5      +0.9 159 +5.6 36 56.3 361 +3.9 112 +4.7 7
94 South Florida 8.5%   21 - 5 14 - 1 23 - 6 16 - 2 +6.0      +2.5 113 +3.5 76 69.3 153 +9.7 60 +17.8 1
111 Charlotte 5.1%   16 - 10 11 - 4 18 - 11 13 - 5 +4.1      +2.5 112 +1.6 127 58.6 358 +5.4 102 +8.9 2
117 UAB 4.2%   17 - 10 10 - 5 18 - 12 11 - 7 +3.5      +3.5 92 0.0 169 69.1 161 +6.2 92 +8.3 4
131 Tulane 3.1%   12 - 14 4 - 11 13 - 16 5 - 13 +2.3      +3.7 89 -1.4 218 80.2 8 +0.4 158 -2.4 11
147 Wichita St. 2.2%   11 - 17 4 - 12 12 - 18 5 - 13 +1.1      -1.5 221 +2.6 101 70.8 115 -0.2 162 -3.6 13
169 East Carolina 1.3%   13 - 14 7 - 8 14 - 16 8 - 10 -0.4      -2.0 232 +1.6 126 63.3 323 -0.8 173 +1.8 8
179 Temple 1.1%   10 - 17 4 - 11 12 - 18 6 - 12 -1.1      -2.1 234 +1.0 142 66.9 229 -2.7 218 -3.4 12
192 Rice 0.8%   10 - 17 5 - 10 11 - 19 6 - 12 -1.9      +0.8 165 -2.7 254 65.8 259 -3.1 226 -2.3 9
195 Tulsa 0.7%   13 - 14 5 - 11 14 - 15 6 - 12 -2.1      -2.6 245 +0.4 152 74.6 46 -1.4 181 -2.4 10
254 Texas San Antonio 0.3%   9 - 19 4 - 12 10 - 20 5 - 13 -4.7      +0.8 164 -5.5 341 75.0 37 -5.8 275 -4.1 14






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Florida Atlantic 2.3 1.9 71.3 18.5 6.9 1.2 0.2
SMU 3.2 26.9 37.1 28.6 6.6 0.7 0.0
Memphis 5.0 1.6 6.7 12.9 48.4 26.1 4.2
North Texas 6.4 0.0 1.0 13.5 28.3 54.7 2.5
South Florida 1.0 100.0
Charlotte 2.6 2.3 52.2 28.4 15.0 1.9 0.2
UAB 4.9 3.7 11.0 18.0 36.1 25.7 5.6
Tulane 11.1 0.9 16.5 22.8 25.9 9.7 14.9 9.2
Wichita St. 11.0 19.2 22.3 25.4 12.1 13.4 7.6
East Carolina 7.9 0.0 0.4 9.2 89.6 0.8
Temple 10.1 6.6 40.9 19.5 16.4 6.1 4.5 6.0
Rice 9.7 0.1 8.0 40.7 25.7 19.5 5.8 0.2 0.0
Tulsa 9.9 4.7 39.3 23.8 23.3 8.6 0.2
Texas San Antonio 12.2 3.7 12.6 21.5 10.8 22.7 28.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida Atlantic 13 - 5 1.6 16.2 44.0 38.2
SMU 12 - 6 0.3 6.0 40.2 53.6
Memphis 11 - 7 17.4 61.3 21.2
North Texas 10 - 8 3.6 24.0 47.5 24.9
South Florida 16 - 2 5.1 26.1 44.6 24.3
Charlotte 13 - 5 4.7 26.0 44.1 25.3
UAB 11 - 7 22.2 44.4 27.8 5.6
Tulane 5 - 13 23.2 52.2 22.2 2.4
Wichita St. 5 - 13 19.1 55.4 25.5
East Carolina 8 - 10 41.7 45.0 12.3 1.0
Temple 6 - 12 10.2 34.1 39.8 15.9
Rice 6 - 12 40.9 41.6 15.5 2.0
Tulsa 6 - 12 45.3 43.2 11.5
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 50.0 47.4 2.6




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida Atlantic 1.9% 1.0 0.9
SMU
Memphis
North Texas
South Florida 100.0% 96.7 2.4 0.9
Charlotte 2.3% 1.4 0.9
UAB
Tulane
Wichita St.
East Carolina
Temple
Rice
Tulsa
Texas San Antonio


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida Atlantic 72.1% 29.8% 42.3% 11   0.0 0.1 1.8 7.8 8.6 9.4 11.3 20.8 12.2 0.1 27.9 60.2%
SMU 20.9% 20.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.8 14.5 5.4 0.2 79.1 0.9%
Memphis 19.5% 13.8% 5.7% 0.1 2.7 14.7 1.9 0.0 80.5 6.6%
North Texas 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.8 1.4 1.3 0.1 90.9 0.0%
South Florida 8.5% 8.3% 0.2% 0.1 4.5 3.6 0.3 0.0 91.5 0.2%
Charlotte 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 94.9 0.0%
UAB 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 95.8 0.0%
Tulane 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.2 96.9 0.0%
Wichita St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 97.8 0.0%
East Carolina 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 98.7 0.0%
Temple 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Rice 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Tulsa 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Florida Atlantic 72.1% 11.7% 66.7% 34.3% 9.8% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
SMU 20.9% 0.7% 20.6% 7.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 19.5% 5.4% 16.5% 5.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 9.1% 0.0% 9.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 8.5% 0.2% 8.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 5.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 3.1% 1.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas San Antonio 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 53.0 45.0 1.9 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.4 0.8 61.0 37.5 0.8
2nd Round 47.8% 0.5 52.2 42.8 5.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.1% 0.1 85.9 13.8 0.3
Elite Eight 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7 0.0
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1