UAB
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#88
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#83
Pace74.5#55
Improvement-1.4#304

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#80
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#40
Layup/Dunks+3.2#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#343
Freethrows+2.7#43
Improvement+1.4#45

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#108
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks-3.3#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows+2.4#50
Improvement-2.8#357
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 11.2% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.4% 5.1% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 12.0
.500 or above 88.3% 91.3% 74.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 68.7% 54.5%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.6% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 1.8%
First Four2.0% 2.3% 0.7%
First Round9.1% 10.0% 4.8%
Second Round3.0% 3.4% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 36 - 310 - 11
Quad 48 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 73   Bradley L 71-73 OT 55%     0 - 1 +2.4 -3.4 +6.0
  Nov 10, 2023 46   Clemson L 76-77 32%     0 - 2 +9.5 +6.3 +3.2
  Nov 12, 2023 59   Maryland W 66-63 38%     1 - 2 +11.9 +0.8 +11.1
  Nov 16, 2023 291   Alcorn St. W 80-77 92%     2 - 2 -7.0 -7.8 +0.5
  Nov 21, 2023 180   @ Middle Tennessee W 58-57 64%     3 - 2 +3.1 -1.7 +4.9
  Nov 25, 2023 115   Furman W 92-86 69%     4 - 2 +6.5 +17.0 -10.4
  Nov 28, 2023 179   McNeese St. W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 01, 2023 202   Southern Miss W 79-68 84%    
  Dec 09, 2023 213   @ Arkansas St. W 78-73 69%    
  Dec 13, 2023 350   @ Alabama A&M W 84-68 93%    
  Dec 22, 2023 81   Drake W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 29, 2023 214   UNC Asheville W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 02, 2024 306   @ Texas San Antonio W 85-74 83%    
  Jan 07, 2024 163   South Florida W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 14, 2024 18   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 17, 2024 92   Tulane W 85-82 63%    
  Jan 20, 2024 208   East Carolina W 83-72 83%    
  Jan 23, 2024 120   @ Charlotte L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 28, 2024 34   Memphis L 77-80 38%    
  Jan 31, 2024 77   @ North Texas L 60-64 35%    
  Feb 04, 2024 91   @ SMU L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 08, 2024 18   Florida Atlantic L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 11, 2024 190   @ Tulsa W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 18, 2024 77   North Texas W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 21, 2024 249   Rice W 87-74 88%    
  Feb 25, 2024 92   @ Tulane L 82-85 41%    
  Feb 28, 2024 89   Wichita St. W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 03, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 74-83 20%    
  Mar 07, 2024 145   @ Temple W 76-74 56%    
  Mar 10, 2024 91   SMU W 77-74 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.9 1.2 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.7 2.2 0.1 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 3.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.4 6.3 9.2 12.2 14.1 13.9 12.7 10.5 7.5 4.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 91.3% 0.7    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 63.1% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1
14-4 30.5% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 6.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 93.4% 13.9% 79.5% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4%
16-2 0.8% 87.8% 18.1% 69.7% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.2%
15-3 2.1% 66.3% 19.0% 47.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 58.3%
14-4 4.3% 41.1% 15.2% 25.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 30.5%
13-5 7.5% 21.9% 10.9% 11.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 5.9 12.3%
12-6 10.5% 11.2% 8.1% 3.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 9.3 3.4%
11-7 12.7% 8.2% 7.6% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.6 0.6%
10-8 13.9% 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 13.1 0.1%
9-9 14.1% 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0%
8-10 12.2% 3.0% 3.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
7-11 9.2% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0
6-12 6.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.2
5-13 3.4% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.3
4-14 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.2% 6.0% 4.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 3.0 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 89.9 4.4%