Tulsa
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#190
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#212
Pace71.8#121
Improvement-0.8#256

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#262
First Shot-6.3#332
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#28
Layup/Dunks+0.8#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#347
Freethrows+2.4#49
Improvement-0.5#235

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#131
First Shot+0.7#148
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#134
Layups/Dunks-0.8#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows+1.5#99
Improvement-0.3#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.6
.500 or above 41.9% 57.6% 33.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.1% 34.1% 23.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.4% 8.3% 13.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 49 - 314 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 341   Central Arkansas W 70-53 89%     1 - 0 +2.1 -7.9 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2023 325   Incarnate Word W 85-71 85%     2 - 0 +1.2 -2.5 +2.5
  Nov 16, 2023 277   Jackson St. W 72-52 77%     3 - 0 +10.7 -10.2 +19.6
  Nov 20, 2023 348   South Carolina St. W 90-70 90%     4 - 0 +4.2 -6.1 +7.2
  Nov 25, 2023 271   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 82-84 OT 55%     4 - 1 -4.9 -5.5 +0.9
  Dec 02, 2023 174   @ Oral Roberts L 73-77 35%    
  Dec 05, 2023 130   Loyola Chicago L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 10, 2023 75   Oklahoma St. L 64-72 22%    
  Dec 16, 2023 103   Missouri St. L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 19, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 77-56 97%    
  Dec 22, 2023 235   New Mexico St. W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 04, 2024 34   Memphis L 69-80 17%    
  Jan 07, 2024 208   @ East Carolina L 72-74 41%    
  Jan 10, 2024 120   @ Charlotte L 57-65 25%    
  Jan 14, 2024 92   Tulane L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 17, 2024 306   Texas San Antonio W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 20, 2024 91   @ SMU L 66-76 19%    
  Jan 27, 2024 249   @ Rice L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 31, 2024 89   Wichita St. L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 03, 2024 18   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-82 4%    
  Feb 07, 2024 77   North Texas L 56-61 31%    
  Feb 11, 2024 88   UAB L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 14, 2024 163   @ South Florida L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 17, 2024 249   Rice W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 21, 2024 89   @ Wichita St. L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 24, 2024 120   Charlotte L 60-62 44%    
  Feb 28, 2024 306   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 02, 2024 145   @ Temple L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 09, 2024 163   South Florida W 70-69 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.5 2.4 1.7 0.2 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.1 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.1 3.9 0.6 0.0 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.4 1.2 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.1 2.0 0.1 12.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.9 5.4 2.3 0.2 12.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.7 13th
14th 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 6.4 14th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.9 6.1 9.5 12.0 14.3 14.4 12.5 10.1 7.3 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 62.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 26.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 16.4% 16.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 9.7% 9.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.3% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
11-7 4.8% 2.4% 2.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
10-8 7.3% 2.0% 2.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.1
9-9 10.1% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
8-10 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.4
7-11 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 14.3
6-12 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-13 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
4-14 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
3-15 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.2 0.0%