Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#304
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#277
Pace74.5#54
Improvement+0.9#120

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#217
First Shot-5.4#311
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#22
Layup/Dunks-6.2#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#208
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+1.2#76

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#339
First Shot-3.9#297
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#312
Layups/Dunks-2.5#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows-2.4#302
Improvement-0.3#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 3.2% 7.7% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 4.0% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 54.4% 47.5% 56.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 25.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 82 - 15
Quad 48 - 69 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 331   Western Illinois W 78-68 OT 70%     1 - 0 -3.1 -8.1 +4.1
  Nov 10, 2023 112   @ Minnesota L 76-102 9%     1 - 1 -19.2 +1.0 -18.2
  Nov 14, 2023 305   @ Lamar L 82-90 39%     1 - 2 -12.8 -2.1 -10.0
  Nov 17, 2023 213   @ Texas St. L 62-72 21%     1 - 3 -9.2 -5.6 -3.8
  Nov 20, 2023 359   @ Houston Christian W 89-87 64%     2 - 3 -9.5 +1.0 -10.7
  Nov 24, 2023 216   Jacksonville St. L 62-77 41%     2 - 4 -20.3 -8.8 -12.5
  Nov 25, 2023 333   Incarnate Word W 90-80 72%     3 - 4 -3.8 -2.8 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2023 305   Lamar W 86-83 62%     4 - 4 -7.8 +4.1 -12.1
  Dec 13, 2023 238   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 80-87 25%    
  Dec 17, 2023 147   @ Oregon St. L 66-78 13%    
  Dec 21, 2023 343   Army W 74-67 76%    
  Dec 28, 2023 248   Prairie View L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 02, 2024 132   UAB L 77-84 26%    
  Jan 06, 2024 237   @ Rice L 77-84 26%    
  Jan 10, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 70-92 2%    
  Jan 13, 2024 131   Charlotte L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 17, 2024 202   @ Tulsa L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 21, 2024 13   Florida Atlantic L 69-89 3%    
  Jan 24, 2024 89   Tulane L 81-91 17%    
  Jan 27, 2024 191   @ South Florida L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 03, 2024 237   Rice L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 07, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. L 69-86 6%    
  Feb 10, 2024 184   East Carolina L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 15, 2024 131   @ Charlotte L 62-75 13%    
  Feb 18, 2024 144   @ Temple L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 21, 2024 191   South Florida L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 24, 2024 82   @ North Texas L 55-72 6%    
  Feb 28, 2024 202   Tulsa L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 02, 2024 95   @ SMU L 69-85 8%    
  Mar 10, 2024 144   Temple L 74-80 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.9 3.0 1.8 0.2 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.8 5.8 1.6 0.0 13.4 12th
13th 0.1 2.4 7.4 7.9 3.2 0.2 0.0 21.4 13th
14th 3.7 9.9 14.0 9.9 3.0 0.4 40.8 14th
Total 3.7 10.0 16.4 18.3 16.4 14.3 9.5 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 0.6% 0.6
9-9 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 3.2% 3.2
7-11 5.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.5
5-13 14.3% 14.3
4-14 16.4% 16.4
3-15 18.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.3
2-16 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
1-17 10.0% 10.0
0-18 3.7% 3.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%