Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#13
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#20
Pace69.2#186
Improvement+3.2#19

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#8
First Shot+8.4#15
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#80
Layup/Dunks+6.8#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#57
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement+2.7#16

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#37
First Shot+6.0#26
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#236
Layups/Dunks-0.4#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#56
Freethrows+1.9#80
Improvement+0.5#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 2.0% 0.8%
#1 Seed 8.7% 11.4% 5.1%
Top 2 Seed 20.3% 26.6% 12.1%
Top 4 Seed 45.7% 54.8% 33.9%
Top 6 Seed 66.5% 75.6% 54.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.3% 97.0% 90.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.6% 94.3% 84.0%
Average Seed 5.0 4.5 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 99.6%
Conference Champion 68.9% 72.3% 64.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 1.3% 4.2%
First Round93.2% 96.5% 89.0%
Second Round72.1% 77.6% 64.9%
Sweet Sixteen40.9% 45.9% 34.4%
Elite Eight21.0% 24.3% 16.7%
Final Four10.8% 12.7% 8.4%
Championship Game5.2% 6.1% 3.9%
National Champion2.4% 2.8% 2.0%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 56.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 2
Quad 26 - 110 - 3
Quad 39 - 119 - 4
Quad 46 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 119   Loyola Chicago W 75-62 88%     1 - 0 +16.0 +5.7 +10.4
  Nov 14, 2023 294   Eastern Michigan W 100-57 98%     2 - 0 +32.8 +27.0 +8.6
  Nov 18, 2023 197   Bryant L 52-61 96%     2 - 1 -13.6 -22.4 +9.1
  Nov 23, 2023 47   Butler W 91-86 69%     3 - 1 +15.3 +20.9 -5.7
  Nov 24, 2023 20   Texas A&M W 96-89 59%     4 - 1 +20.3 +31.7 -11.2
  Nov 26, 2023 58   Virginia Tech W 84-50 75%     5 - 1 +42.5 +12.4 +29.3
  Nov 30, 2023 61   Liberty W 83-58 83%     6 - 1 +30.2 +20.4 +12.5
  Dec 02, 2023 107   College of Charleston W 90-74 91%     7 - 1 +17.0 +14.6 +1.9
  Dec 05, 2023 19   Illinois W 75-74 57%    
  Dec 13, 2023 228   Florida International W 87-65 98%    
  Dec 16, 2023 99   St. Bonaventure W 77-66 85%    
  Dec 23, 2023 2   Arizona L 79-83 35%    
  Dec 30, 2023 220   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 02, 2024 184   East Carolina W 86-66 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 131   @ Charlotte W 71-61 83%    
  Jan 11, 2024 89   @ Tulane W 86-79 74%    
  Jan 14, 2024 132   UAB W 85-69 93%    
  Jan 18, 2024 84   Wichita St. W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 21, 2024 304   @ Texas San Antonio W 89-69 97%    
  Jan 24, 2024 237   @ Rice W 86-70 93%    
  Jan 28, 2024 82   North Texas W 68-56 86%    
  Feb 03, 2024 202   Tulsa W 83-63 97%    
  Feb 08, 2024 132   @ UAB W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 11, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 15, 2024 144   Temple W 83-66 94%    
  Feb 18, 2024 191   @ South Florida W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 22, 2024 95   SMU W 81-68 89%    
  Feb 25, 2024 37   @ Memphis W 79-78 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 89   Tulane W 89-76 87%    
  Mar 06, 2024 82   @ North Texas W 65-59 71%    
  Mar 09, 2024 37   Memphis W 82-75 73%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.0 15.5 21.1 17.6 7.6 68.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.4 6.9 4.9 1.1 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.9 9.2 14.1 20.5 22.1 17.6 7.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.6    7.6
17-1 99.9% 17.6    17.1 0.5
16-2 95.2% 21.1    17.9 3.1 0.1
15-3 75.6% 15.5    9.6 5.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 42.9% 6.0    2.4 2.6 0.9 0.1
13-5 12.0% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
12-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.9% 68.9 54.7 11.9 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.6% 100.0% 63.4% 36.5% 1.7 3.7 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-1 17.6% 99.9% 57.2% 42.7% 2.5 4.2 5.6 4.2 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 22.1% 99.7% 51.3% 48.3% 3.9 0.7 3.0 5.6 6.2 3.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.3%
15-3 20.5% 98.4% 43.4% 55.0% 5.6 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.7 5.3 4.0 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.2%
14-4 14.1% 95.9% 38.4% 57.4% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.6 93.3%
13-5 9.2% 87.1% 30.4% 56.7% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.2 81.4%
12-6 4.9% 75.5% 27.9% 47.6% 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.2 66.0%
11-7 2.3% 55.9% 22.4% 33.5% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 43.2%
10-8 1.1% 32.3% 13.9% 18.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 21.3%
9-9 0.5% 36.2% 23.1% 13.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 17.0%
8-10 0.2% 12.5% 5.2% 7.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.7%
7-11 0.1% 4.7% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.3% 45.5% 48.9% 5.0 8.7 11.7 12.2 13.2 11.7 9.1 7.5 6.1 5.6 5.5 2.9 0.2 5.7 89.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 1.3 67.2 31.3 0.9 0.6