East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#184
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#232
Pace67.7#224
Improvement+1.1#110

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#99
First Shot+2.8#98
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#198
Layup/Dunks+2.8#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+2.6#50
Improvement+0.2#153

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#294
First Shot-4.3#307
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#122
Layups/Dunks-5.3#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#236
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.8#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.4
.500 or above 36.1% 38.0% 15.6%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 24.0% 13.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 12.6% 20.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 91.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 55 - 13
Quad 48 - 413 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 317   Campbell W 77-63 84%     1 - 0 +2.5 +2.3 +0.6
  Nov 15, 2023 271   South Carolina Upstate L 81-83 78%     1 - 1 -11.1 +4.8 -15.9
  Nov 19, 2023 210   Northeastern L 76-82 65%     1 - 2 -11.1 +5.3 -17.0
  Nov 20, 2023 313   Georgia Southern W 82-64 83%     2 - 2 +6.7 +2.7 +4.3
  Nov 21, 2023 212   Kennesaw St. W 85-84 66%     3 - 2 -4.2 +2.0 -6.2
  Nov 25, 2023 98   @ George Mason L 59-81 20%     3 - 3 -14.2 +0.7 -19.0
  Nov 30, 2023 116   UNC Wilmington W 74-66 45%     4 - 3 +8.1 +8.3 +0.5
  Dec 04, 2023 345   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-65 92%    
  Dec 09, 2023 73   South Carolina L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 14, 2023 33   Florida L 73-86 12%    
  Dec 20, 2023 328   Delaware St. W 79-67 86%    
  Dec 29, 2023 244   East Tennessee St. W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 02, 2024 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-86 4%    
  Jan 07, 2024 202   Tulsa W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 10, 2024 144   @ Temple L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 13, 2024 95   SMU L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 17, 2024 82   North Texas L 60-64 34%    
  Jan 20, 2024 132   @ UAB L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 24, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. L 70-80 17%    
  Jan 28, 2024 144   Temple W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 31, 2024 191   South Florida W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 03, 2024 131   @ Charlotte L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 10, 2024 304   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 15, 2024 84   Wichita St. L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 18, 2024 89   Tulane L 80-84 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 237   @ Rice L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 29, 2024 37   Memphis L 73-83 21%    
  Mar 03, 2024 82   @ North Texas L 57-67 18%    
  Mar 06, 2024 95   @ SMU L 70-79 21%    
  Mar 09, 2024 131   Charlotte L 66-67 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.6 3.0 2.2 0.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 4.4 1.7 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.4 3.2 0.3 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.1 0.8 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.0 1.7 0.0 12.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.0 6.1 2.4 0.2 13.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.3 13th
14th 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 7.2 14th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.1 10.5 13.1 14.9 14.5 11.7 9.8 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 79.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 45.5% 0.1    0.1
14-4 24.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 9.3% 9.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
12-6 1.9% 3.6% 3.6% 13.0 0.1 1.9
11-7 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
10-8 6.2% 0.7% 0.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
9-9 9.8% 1.4% 1.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.7
8-10 11.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.7
7-11 14.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 14.4
6-12 14.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.8
5-13 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
4-14 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
3-15 7.1% 7.1
2-16 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 99.3 0.0%