SMU
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#95
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#132
Pace71.2#129
Improvement-0.5#216

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#123
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#43
Layup/Dunks+2.0#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
Freethrows-3.0#325
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#82
First Shot+5.4#39
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#309
Layups/Dunks+4.4#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#178
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement-0.2#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.3% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.2% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.9
.500 or above 81.1% 82.7% 57.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 72.1% 58.8%
Conference Champion 3.6% 3.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 2.7%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
First Round5.8% 6.0% 2.8%
Second Round1.6% 1.6% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 93.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 35 - 38 - 12
Quad 49 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 331   Western Illinois W 90-53 94%     1 - 0 +23.9 +3.6 +17.2
  Nov 09, 2023 305   Lamar W 78-67 92%     2 - 0 +0.2 -2.9 +2.7
  Nov 14, 2023 20   Texas A&M L 66-79 31%     2 - 1 -2.7 -4.2 +1.6
  Nov 20, 2023 105   West Virginia W 70-58 53%     3 - 1 +16.2 +5.3 +11.7
  Nov 22, 2023 22   Wisconsin L 61-69 23%     3 - 2 +5.0 +3.7 +0.0
  Nov 26, 2023 286   Louisiana Monroe W 70-57 91%     4 - 2 +3.2 +3.1 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2023 60   Dayton L 63-65 49%     4 - 3 +3.4 +0.3 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2023 301   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-61 93%    
  Dec 06, 2023 81   @ Arizona St. L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 16, 2023 71   @ Florida St. L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 19, 2023 359   Houston Christian W 90-67 98%    
  Dec 22, 2023 172   @ Murray St. W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 02, 2024 131   Charlotte W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 07, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 72-81 19%    
  Jan 13, 2024 184   @ East Carolina W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 16, 2024 144   Temple W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 20, 2024 202   Tulsa W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 25, 2024 82   @ North Texas L 58-62 36%    
  Jan 28, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 01, 2024 89   Tulane W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 04, 2024 132   UAB W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 07, 2024 237   @ Rice W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 11, 2024 82   North Texas W 61-59 57%    
  Feb 15, 2024 89   @ Tulane L 79-82 38%    
  Feb 18, 2024 37   Memphis L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 22, 2024 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-81 11%    
  Feb 25, 2024 191   @ South Florida W 71-68 62%    
  Mar 02, 2024 304   Texas San Antonio W 85-69 92%    
  Mar 06, 2024 184   East Carolina W 79-70 79%    
  Mar 10, 2024 132   @ UAB L 75-76 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 3.7 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.1 3.9 1.1 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.7 4.4 0.8 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.3 1.3 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 5.3 1.8 0.1 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.4 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.6 2.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 5.0 8.1 11.4 13.2 15.0 13.8 11.2 8.9 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 94.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 80.7% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 45.5% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.1
14-4 15.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 62.7% 31.7% 31.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 45.3%
16-2 1.0% 50.6% 19.9% 30.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 38.3%
15-3 2.6% 27.3% 13.9% 13.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 15.6%
14-4 5.3% 14.5% 10.4% 4.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.6 4.6%
13-5 8.9% 9.4% 8.2% 1.2% 11.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.1 1.3%
12-6 11.2% 7.1% 6.9% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4 0.2%
11-7 13.8% 4.5% 4.5% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.1%
10-8 15.0% 3.7% 3.7% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.4
9-9 13.2% 4.5% 4.5% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.6
8-10 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1
7-11 8.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.9
6-12 5.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 6.1% 5.0% 1.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 93.9 1.2%