Tulane
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#89
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#101
Pace81.3#3
Improvement+1.6#86

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#60
First Shot+9.8#9
After Offensive Rebound-4.8#357
Layup/Dunks+8.3#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#309
Freethrows+6.0#4
Improvement+0.3#150

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#156
First Shot+0.5#157
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#196
Layups/Dunks+1.3#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
Freethrows+3.5#22
Improvement+1.3#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 9.9% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 3.6% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.8
.500 or above 86.2% 91.5% 78.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.4% 72.8% 64.1%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.7% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.1% 1.9%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 0.9%
First Round7.6% 9.1% 5.3%
Second Round2.2% 3.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 410 - 10
Quad 48 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 258   Nicholls St. W 91-81 89%     1 - 0 +1.9 +6.6 -5.5
  Nov 09, 2023 339   Northwestern St. W 88-71 96%     2 - 0 +2.2 -1.8 +2.4
  Nov 17, 2023 269   Sacramento St. W 92-57 90%     3 - 0 +26.2 +10.3 +14.4
  Nov 20, 2023 92   Bradley L 77-80 51%     3 - 1 +2.3 +9.0 -6.8
  Nov 22, 2023 140   California W 84-81 65%     4 - 1 +4.5 +1.8 +2.3
  Nov 29, 2023 248   Prairie View W 98-77 88%     5 - 1 +13.5 +8.7 +1.4
  Dec 03, 2023 170   @ Fordham W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 09, 2023 27   Mississippi St. L 72-79 25%    
  Dec 14, 2023 122   Furman W 90-84 70%    
  Dec 16, 2023 320   Southern W 91-74 94%    
  Dec 22, 2023 98   George Mason W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 03, 2024 237   Rice W 90-78 87%    
  Jan 06, 2024 82   @ North Texas L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 11, 2024 13   Florida Atlantic L 79-86 26%    
  Jan 14, 2024 202   @ Tulsa W 81-77 66%    
  Jan 17, 2024 132   @ UAB W 84-83 51%    
  Jan 21, 2024 37   Memphis L 83-86 40%    
  Jan 24, 2024 304   @ Texas San Antonio W 91-81 83%    
  Jan 27, 2024 131   Charlotte W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2024 95   @ SMU L 79-82 42%    
  Feb 04, 2024 144   Temple W 84-77 75%    
  Feb 11, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 80-89 22%    
  Feb 15, 2024 95   SMU W 82-79 62%    
  Feb 18, 2024 184   @ East Carolina W 84-80 63%    
  Feb 25, 2024 132   UAB W 87-81 72%    
  Feb 28, 2024 82   North Texas W 67-65 59%    
  Mar 02, 2024 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 76-89 13%    
  Mar 05, 2024 191   @ South Florida W 79-75 63%    
  Mar 08, 2024 84   Wichita St. W 82-80 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.1 1.1 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 5.2 1.6 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.6 3.1 2.7 0.4 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.5 8.4 11.3 13.4 14.1 13.8 11.5 8.1 5.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 84.3% 0.7    0.5 0.2
15-3 57.3% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 19.8% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 94.5% 14.5% 80.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.6%
16-2 0.9% 68.2% 25.3% 42.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 57.4%
15-3 2.3% 46.0% 18.1% 28.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.2 34.1%
14-4 5.1% 28.1% 13.8% 14.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.7 16.6%
13-5 8.1% 15.9% 11.3% 4.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 5.2%
12-6 11.5% 9.2% 7.6% 1.6% 11.5 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.4 1.7%
11-7 13.8% 6.5% 6.4% 0.2% 11.8 0.3 0.5 0.1 12.9 0.2%
10-8 14.1% 4.6% 4.6% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.4
9-9 13.4% 3.7% 3.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-10 11.3% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0
7-11 8.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.2
6-12 5.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.3% 5.8% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 91.7 2.6%