IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.0	#163
Expected Predictive Rating	-9.1	#303

Pace	70.2	#159
Improvement	-2.4	#348

Offense
Total Offense	-2.2	#240

First Shot	-3.1	#269
After Offensive Rebound	+0.9	#135

Layup/Dunks	+4.7	#40
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.8	#133
3 Pt Jumpshots	-10.0	#358
Freethrows	+1.3	#94

Improvement	-1.4	#312

Defense
Total Defense	+2.3	#110

First Shot	+2.5	#102
After Offensive Rebounds	-0.2	#199

Layups/Dunks	-0.9	#221
2 Pt Jumpshots	+3.0	#26
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.3	#134
Freethrows	-0.8	#242

Improvement	-1.0	#287

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	2.1%	1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.1	13.5	14.4

.500 or above	43.0%	62.9%	36.3%
.500 or above in Conference	42.4%	53.0%	38.8%
Conference Champion	1.1%	1.9%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	6.1%	3.4%	7.0%

First Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%
First Round	1.3%	1.9%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	4 - 5	6 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 4	14 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2023	348	South Carolina St.	W	96-52	92%	1 - 0			+28.2	+6.8	+18.2
Nov 15, 2023	313	Central Michigan	L	63-68	86%	1 - 1			-16.4	-16.3	+0.0
Nov 19, 2023	110	Northern Iowa	W	74-65	46%	2 - 1			+10.0	+3.6	+6.7
Nov 22, 2023	263	Maine	L	59-70	79%	2 - 2			-19.5	-17.0	-2.6
Nov 30, 2023	106	@ Hofstra	L	67-74	25%
Dec 02, 2023	140	@ Massachusetts	L	72-76	34%
Dec 09, 2023	66	Florida St.	L	69-77	23%
Dec 12, 2023	354	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	84-67	94%
Dec 17, 2023	130	Loyola Chicago	W	69-68	51%
Dec 22, 2023	268	Albany	W	77-68	78%
Dec 29, 2023	330	Alabama St.	W	75-62	89%
Jan 04, 2024	145	Temple	W	71-69	57%
Jan 07, 2024	88	@ UAB	L	69-78	22%
Jan 12, 2024	249	Rice	W	79-71	75%
Jan 18, 2024	34	@ Memphis	L	66-81	9%
Jan 21, 2024	89	Wichita St.	L	69-72	40%
Jan 24, 2024	145	@ Temple	L	68-72	36%
Jan 27, 2024	306	Texas San Antonio	W	80-69	83%
Jan 31, 2024	208	@ East Carolina	L	72-73	47%
Feb 03, 2024	77	@ North Texas	L	53-63	20%
Feb 06, 2024	120	Charlotte	L	60-61	49%
Feb 10, 2024	249	@ Rice	W	76-74	56%
Feb 14, 2024	190	Tulsa	W	72-67	66%
Feb 18, 2024	18	Florida Atlantic	L	66-78	15%
Feb 21, 2024	306	@ Texas San Antonio	W	77-72	67%
Feb 25, 2024	91	SMU	L	69-71	42%
Mar 02, 2024	120	@ Charlotte	L	57-63	30%
Mar 05, 2024	92	Tulane	L	77-79	42%
Mar 09, 2024	190	@ Tulsa	L	69-70	45%
Projected Record						14 - 15	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	1.2	1.0	0.3	0.0				3.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.2	1.5	0.3	0.0					4.9	3rd
4th										0.0	1.0	3.1	2.0	0.3	0.0						6.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	3.4	3.0	0.6	0.0							7.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	3.2	4.2	1.0	0.0								8.6	6th
7th								0.1	2.5	5.0	1.7	0.1									9.4	7th
8th							0.1	1.7	5.3	2.9	0.3	0.0									10.3	8th
9th						0.0	0.9	4.6	4.3	0.6											10.5	9th
10th					0.0	0.7	3.7	5.0	1.2	0.0											10.6	10th
11th					0.4	3.1	4.7	1.6	0.1												9.8	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	2.2	3.8	1.6	0.1													8.1	12th
13th		0.0	0.4	1.5	2.6	1.3	0.2														6.0	13th
14th	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.2	0.5	0.1															3.2	14th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	3.1	5.7	8.9	11.1	13.2	13.8	12.5	10.7	8.0	5.5	3.2	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	82.9%	0.2		0.1	0.0	0.0
15-3	52.8%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	23.2%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	5.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1		0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%														0.0									0.0
17-1	0.0%																	0.0	0.0					0.0
16-2	0.2%		16.2%	9.0%	7.2%	11.2										0.0		0.0	0.0					0.2		7.9%
15-3	0.6%		10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	11.9												0.0	0.0		0.0			0.5		1.8%
14-4	1.6%		6.0%	6.0%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			1.5
13-5	3.2%		3.6%	3.6%		12.6												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			3.1
12-6	5.5%		3.5%	3.5%		13.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		5.3
11-7	8.0%		2.1%	2.1%		13.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		7.9
10-8	10.7%		1.6%	1.6%		14.6														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.6
9-9	12.5%		1.7%	1.7%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	12.3
8-10	13.8%		1.1%	1.1%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	13.6
7-11	13.2%		0.6%	0.6%		15.9																0.0	0.1	13.1
6-12	11.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
5-13	8.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
4-14	5.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
3-15	3.1%																							3.1
2-16	1.3%																							1.3
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		1.4%	1.3%	0.0%	14.1									0.0	0.0		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	98.6		0.0%