South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#163
Expected Predictive Rating-9.1#303
Pace70.2#159
Improvement-2.4#348

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#240
First Shot-3.1#269
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#135
Layup/Dunks+4.7#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.0#358
Freethrows+1.3#94
Improvement-1.4#312

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#110
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#199
Layups/Dunks-0.9#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows-0.8#242
Improvement-1.0#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.1% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.4
.500 or above 43.0% 62.9% 36.3%
.500 or above in Conference 42.4% 53.0% 38.8%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.4% 7.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round1.3% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 56 - 11
Quad 48 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 348   South Carolina St. W 96-52 92%     1 - 0 +28.2 +6.8 +18.2
  Nov 15, 2023 313   Central Michigan L 63-68 86%     1 - 1 -16.4 -16.3 +0.0
  Nov 19, 2023 110   Northern Iowa W 74-65 46%     2 - 1 +10.0 +3.6 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2023 263   Maine L 59-70 79%     2 - 2 -19.5 -17.0 -2.6
  Nov 30, 2023 106   @ Hofstra L 67-74 25%    
  Dec 02, 2023 140   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 34%    
  Dec 09, 2023 66   Florida St. L 69-77 23%    
  Dec 12, 2023 354   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 84-67 94%    
  Dec 17, 2023 130   Loyola Chicago W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 22, 2023 268   Albany W 77-68 78%    
  Dec 29, 2023 330   Alabama St. W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 04, 2024 145   Temple W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 07, 2024 88   @ UAB L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 12, 2024 249   Rice W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 18, 2024 34   @ Memphis L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 21, 2024 89   Wichita St. L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 24, 2024 145   @ Temple L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 27, 2024 306   Texas San Antonio W 80-69 83%    
  Jan 31, 2024 208   @ East Carolina L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 03, 2024 77   @ North Texas L 53-63 20%    
  Feb 06, 2024 120   Charlotte L 60-61 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 249   @ Rice W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 14, 2024 190   Tulsa W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 18, 2024 18   Florida Atlantic L 66-78 15%    
  Feb 21, 2024 306   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 25, 2024 91   SMU L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 02, 2024 120   @ Charlotte L 57-63 30%    
  Mar 05, 2024 92   Tulane L 77-79 42%    
  Mar 09, 2024 190   @ Tulsa L 69-70 45%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.2 1.0 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.0 1.7 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.3 0.6 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.0 1.2 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.4 3.1 4.7 1.6 0.1 9.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 1.6 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 1.3 0.2 6.0 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.7 8.9 11.1 13.2 13.8 12.5 10.7 8.0 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 82.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 52.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 23.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 16.2% 9.0% 7.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.9%
15-3 0.6% 10.5% 8.9% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8%
14-4 1.6% 6.0% 6.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1
12-6 5.5% 3.5% 3.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3
11-7 8.0% 2.1% 2.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
10-8 10.7% 1.6% 1.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
9-9 12.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.3
8-10 13.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.6
7-11 13.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.1
6-12 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.1
5-13 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.8
4-14 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 98.6 0.0%