Memphis
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#37
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#38
Pace77.2#29
Improvement-1.9#296

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#42
First Shot+6.8#30
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#240
Layup/Dunks+5.4#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows+1.6#92
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#31
First Shot+4.4#57
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#91
Layups/Dunks+6.9#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#297
Freethrows+1.2#118
Improvement-1.6#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 3.1% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 11.8% 4.4%
Top 6 Seed 19.4% 24.4% 11.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.6% 70.1% 52.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.7% 61.2% 41.9%
Average Seed 7.8 7.5 8.5
.500 or above 98.4% 99.4% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 97.3% 95.7%
Conference Champion 26.7% 29.8% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.1% 8.3% 7.8%
First Round59.6% 65.9% 49.0%
Second Round34.3% 39.2% 26.2%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 17.2% 9.3%
Elite Eight6.1% 7.7% 3.6%
Final Four2.3% 3.0% 1.2%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 39 - 7
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 47 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 262   Jackson St. W 94-77 96%     1 - 0 +8.6 +2.9 +3.2
  Nov 10, 2023 80   @ Missouri W 70-55 58%     2 - 0 +24.4 +0.8 +23.5
  Nov 17, 2023 330   Alabama St. W 92-75 98%     3 - 0 +4.0 +7.6 -4.8
  Nov 22, 2023 51   Michigan W 71-67 58%     4 - 0 +13.5 +1.5 +12.1
  Nov 23, 2023 46   Arkansas W 84-79 54%     5 - 0 +15.4 +13.5 +1.7
  Nov 24, 2023 31   Villanova L 63-79 48%     5 - 1 -3.9 -4.2 +0.3
  Dec 02, 2023 77   @ Mississippi L 77-80 56%     5 - 2 +7.1 +3.7 +3.6
  Dec 06, 2023 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 10, 2023 20   @ Texas A&M L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 16, 2023 34   Clemson W 78-75 60%    
  Dec 19, 2023 30   Virginia W 66-64 59%    
  Dec 23, 2023 178   Vanderbilt W 83-68 92%    
  Dec 30, 2023 275   Austin Peay W 81-60 98%    
  Jan 04, 2024 202   @ Tulsa W 80-70 83%    
  Jan 07, 2024 95   SMU W 81-72 81%    
  Jan 10, 2024 304   Texas San Antonio W 92-70 98%    
  Jan 14, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. W 78-76 59%    
  Jan 18, 2024 191   South Florida W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 21, 2024 89   @ Tulane W 86-83 60%    
  Jan 28, 2024 132   @ UAB W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 31, 2024 237   Rice W 88-70 95%    
  Feb 03, 2024 84   Wichita St. W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 08, 2024 144   @ Temple W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 11, 2024 89   Tulane W 89-80 78%    
  Feb 15, 2024 82   @ North Texas W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 18, 2024 95   @ SMU W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 21, 2024 131   Charlotte W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 25, 2024 13   Florida Atlantic L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 29, 2024 184   @ East Carolina W 83-73 79%    
  Mar 03, 2024 132   UAB W 85-73 86%    
  Mar 09, 2024 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-82 27%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 7.9 8.8 4.4 1.0 26.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.7 8.1 10.9 6.6 1.4 29.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.7 6.0 2.1 0.2 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.0 0.9 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.9 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.4 10.3 13.3 15.8 16.8 14.6 10.2 4.4 1.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 4.4    4.0 0.4
16-2 86.4% 8.8    6.4 2.3 0.1
15-3 53.8% 7.9    3.8 3.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 22.1% 3.7    1.0 1.9 0.7 0.1
13-5 5.7% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.7% 26.7 16.3 8.4 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 100.0% 52.9% 47.1% 2.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.4% 99.7% 42.0% 57.7% 3.6 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
16-2 10.2% 98.3% 36.5% 61.8% 5.3 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.3%
15-3 14.6% 92.0% 28.3% 63.7% 7.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.3 1.2 88.8%
14-4 16.8% 82.4% 24.0% 58.4% 8.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 1.5 0.0 3.0 76.8%
13-5 15.8% 64.2% 18.5% 45.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.1 2.2 0.2 5.7 56.1%
12-6 13.3% 46.9% 15.0% 32.0% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.3 2.7 0.2 7.1 37.6%
11-7 10.3% 27.2% 9.6% 17.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.2 7.5 19.5%
10-8 6.4% 17.0% 9.9% 7.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.3 7.9%
9-9 3.9% 10.2% 7.6% 2.6% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 2.8%
8-10 2.0% 6.8% 5.8% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.1%
7-11 0.8% 11.2% 11.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 63.6% 21.3% 42.3% 7.8 0.8 1.3 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.4 6.2 7.2 8.0 12.3 9.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 36.4 53.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 68.0 32.0