Rice
American Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#237
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#272
Pace72.6#90
Improvement+1.6#77

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#181
First Shot+2.3#113
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#302
Layup/Dunks-3.2#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows+3.1#39
Improvement-1.6#304

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#289
First Shot-5.0#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#67
Layups/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#311
Freethrows+0.7#138
Improvement+3.2#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 n/a 15.7
.500 or above 9.3% 34.3% 9.1%
.500 or above in Conference 15.6% 34.9% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 8.9% 20.2%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 41 - 10
Quad 32 - 63 - 16
Quad 48 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 150   Harvard L 76-89 45%     0 - 1 -15.3 +1.3 -16.5
  Nov 15, 2023 25   @ Texas L 64-80 5%     0 - 2 -0.3 -1.3 +0.7
  Nov 21, 2023 74   Indiana St. L 88-103 15%     0 - 3 -7.7 +5.7 -11.5
  Nov 22, 2023 42   New Mexico L 56-90 9%     0 - 4 -22.9 -15.4 -5.7
  Nov 24, 2023 78   UC Irvine L 68-83 16%     0 - 5 -8.1 -2.0 -5.6
  Nov 30, 2023 267   Tennessee Martin W 98-78 69%     1 - 5 +11.3 +7.2 +1.9
  Dec 02, 2023 359   Houston Christian W 65-56 90%     2 - 5 -8.5 -20.0 +11.1
  Dec 06, 2023 3   @ Houston L 56-82 1%    
  Dec 13, 2023 333   Incarnate Word W 85-75 82%    
  Dec 16, 2023 339   @ Northwestern St. W 79-74 69%    
  Dec 20, 2023 248   Prairie View W 77-73 64%    
  Dec 22, 2023 174   Louisiana L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 03, 2024 89   @ Tulane L 78-90 13%    
  Jan 06, 2024 304   Texas San Antonio W 84-77 74%    
  Jan 12, 2024 191   @ South Florida L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 16, 2024 131   Charlotte L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 20, 2024 144   @ Temple L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 24, 2024 13   Florida Atlantic L 70-86 7%    
  Jan 27, 2024 202   Tulsa W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 31, 2024 37   @ Memphis L 70-88 5%    
  Feb 03, 2024 304   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 07, 2024 95   SMU L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 10, 2024 191   South Florida W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 17, 2024 202   @ Tulsa L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 21, 2024 132   @ UAB L 74-83 21%    
  Feb 24, 2024 184   East Carolina W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 28, 2024 144   Temple L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 02, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. L 69-82 13%    
  Mar 06, 2024 131   @ Charlotte L 63-72 22%    
  Mar 09, 2024 82   North Texas L 59-66 26%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.3 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.8 0.3 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.3 0.7 0.0 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.5 6.1 1.7 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.8 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.0 12th
13th 0.0 1.3 4.7 6.8 3.0 0.3 0.0 16.2 13th
14th 0.5 1.9 4.1 3.5 1.6 0.3 11.8 14th
Total 0.5 1.9 5.4 9.0 13.3 15.5 15.2 13.7 10.0 7.4 4.3 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 20.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.4% 0.4
12-6 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-7 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 2.3
10-8 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 4.3
9-9 7.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.3
8-10 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.9
7-11 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 15.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
3-15 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
2-16 5.4% 5.4
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%