North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#82
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#135
Pace53.8#362
Improvement+0.2#173

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#174
First Shot-1.7#228
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks-4.1#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#129
Freethrows-2.1#298
Improvement-0.9#258

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#25
First Shot+8.2#9
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#302
Layups/Dunks+8.4#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#102
Freethrows+0.0#194
Improvement+1.0#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 13.3% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 5.7% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.0 10.4 11.6
.500 or above 85.2% 94.2% 80.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 84.9% 74.8%
Conference Champion 6.1% 7.7% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four1.4% 2.2% 0.9%
First Round9.1% 12.3% 7.3%
Second Round3.1% 5.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.6% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Away) - 35.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 39 - 11
Quad 48 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 143   Northern Iowa W 83-77 OT 77%     1 - 0 +4.4 +5.9 -1.6
  Nov 11, 2023 281   Nebraska Omaha W 75-64 92%     2 - 0 +1.6 +11.6 -7.7
  Nov 16, 2023 53   St. John's L 52-53 38%     2 - 1 +8.5 -13.4 +21.8
  Nov 17, 2023 94   LSU L 62-66 54%     2 - 2 +1.2 -0.6 +1.4
  Nov 19, 2023 219   Towson W 65-39 80%     3 - 2 +23.6 +2.5 +25.3
  Dec 02, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 79-48 99%     4 - 2 +8.3 +13.4 +1.1
  Dec 05, 2023 76   @ Boise St. L 55-59 35%    
  Dec 10, 2023 170   Fordham W 61-54 73%    
  Dec 17, 2023 27   Mississippi St. L 54-60 28%    
  Dec 23, 2023 167   Texas Arlington W 65-56 81%    
  Jan 04, 2024 84   @ Wichita St. L 59-62 40%    
  Jan 06, 2024 89   Tulane W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 13, 2024 144   Temple W 64-56 77%    
  Jan 17, 2024 184   @ East Carolina W 64-60 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 131   @ Charlotte W 55-54 54%    
  Jan 25, 2024 95   SMU W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 28, 2024 13   @ Florida Atlantic L 56-68 14%    
  Jan 31, 2024 132   UAB W 66-59 74%    
  Feb 03, 2024 191   South Florida W 63-52 83%    
  Feb 07, 2024 202   @ Tulsa W 62-57 68%    
  Feb 11, 2024 95   @ SMU L 59-61 43%    
  Feb 15, 2024 37   Memphis L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 18, 2024 132   @ UAB W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 304   Texas San Antonio W 72-55 94%    
  Feb 28, 2024 89   @ Tulane L 65-67 41%    
  Mar 03, 2024 184   East Carolina W 67-57 82%    
  Mar 06, 2024 13   Florida Atlantic L 59-65 29%    
  Mar 09, 2024 237   @ Rice W 66-59 74%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.5 4.8 2.0 0.3 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.2 5.0 1.5 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.1 4.8 0.9 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.5 0.9 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.3 3.6 4.4 1.1 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.7 1.7 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 1.0 3.6 2.1 0.2 6.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 2.3 0.3 5.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.5 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.8 5.9 8.8 11.9 13.6 14.4 13.5 10.7 7.8 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 82.4% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 48.8% 2.0    0.9 0.9 0.2
14-4 19.8% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-5 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 91.8% 31.1% 60.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.0%
16-2 1.9% 64.2% 22.3% 41.9% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 54.0%
15-3 4.0% 34.3% 15.5% 18.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.6 22.2%
14-4 7.8% 18.2% 11.4% 6.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.4 7.7%
13-5 10.7% 12.2% 10.0% 2.2% 11.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 9.4 2.5%
12-6 13.5% 8.3% 7.8% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.3 0.5%
11-7 14.4% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0%
10-8 13.6% 4.6% 4.6% 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.0
9-9 11.9% 4.5% 4.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-10 8.8% 2.7% 2.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.6
7-11 5.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.8
6-12 3.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
5-13 2.1% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.6% 6.8% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 90.4 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.6 21.7 26.1 26.1 26.1