Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Duke 99.9%   3   22 - 6 13 - 4 24 - 7 15 - 5 +17.2      +10.7 8 +6.5 24 67.2 221 +15.1 13 +15.2 2
9 North Carolina 100.0%   2   22 - 6 14 - 3 24 - 7 16 - 4 +17.1      +7.7 24 +9.4 6 74.9 41 +16.6 7 +17.8 1
21 Wake Forest 65.2%   11   18 - 10 10 - 7 20 - 11 12 - 8 +13.4      +8.0 20 +5.4 39 70.9 109 +10.0 57 +11.0 4
23 Clemson 95.2%   7   20 - 8 10 - 7 22 - 9 12 - 8 +13.1      +8.0 21 +5.2 42 66.8 235 +13.3 24 +10.6 5
49 Pittsburgh 42.6%   18 - 10 9 - 8 20 - 11 11 - 9 +10.0      +5.5 49 +4.5 54 65.5 266 +9.7 62 +10.4 6
59 Virginia Tech 8.8%   15 - 13 7 - 10 17 - 14 9 - 11 +8.9      +6.2 39 +2.8 100 68.0 199 +8.1 74 +6.5 10
64 Virginia 46.4%   21 - 8 12 - 6 22 - 9 13 - 7 +8.6      0.0 182 +8.6 10 55.4 362 +12.1 35 +12.0 3
70 North Carolina St. 7.0%   17 - 11 9 - 8 18 - 13 10 - 10 +8.0      +4.8 64 +3.2 88 70.3 125 +8.3 72 +8.8 9
72 Miami (FL) 3.4%   15 - 14 6 - 12 16 - 15 7 - 13 +7.5      +5.1 60 +2.5 106 71.0 106 +7.0 88 +4.8 11
74 Florida St. 6.9%   15 - 13 9 - 8 16 - 15 10 - 10 +7.5      +3.3 97 +4.2 58 74.9 40 +7.7 79 +9.8 8
76 Syracuse 10.0%   18 - 10 10 - 8 19 - 11 11 - 9 +7.3      +4.1 81 +3.3 80 74.6 45 +11.1 44 +10.2 7
93 Boston College 2.2%   15 - 13 6 - 11 16 - 15 7 - 13 +6.1      +5.1 59 +1.0 141 68.7 174 +6.1 94 +4.2 12
115 Notre Dame 1.2%   11 - 17 6 - 11 12 - 19 7 - 13 +3.5      -2.5 244 +6.1 26 62.1 339 +2.0 135 +4.2 13
128 Georgia Tech 1.0%   12 - 16 5 - 12 13 - 18 6 - 14 +2.8      +1.5 130 +1.2 137 67.8 201 +5.3 104 +3.9 14
174 Louisville 0.3%   8 - 20 3 - 14 9 - 22 4 - 16 -0.6      +0.4 168 -1.0 201 72.6 67 -2.1 206 +0.4 15






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Duke 1.6 43.1 55.4 1.5
North Carolina 1.1 92.5 7.5
Wake Forest 4.1 0.1 35.0 33.9 20.3 8.3 1.7 0.6 0.0
Clemson 4.4 0.1 26.2 30.8 25.7 11.0 4.8 1.4 0.1
Pittsburgh 6.0 2.1 13.0 26.2 27.6 12.3 11.5 6.0 1.4
Virginia Tech 9.2 0.0 0.7 5.9 15.7 30.1 41.9 4.6 1.0 0.1
Virginia 3.0 0.0 6.6 83.4 9.9
North Carolina St. 8.1 0.1 0.8 4.6 9.3 13.4 25.1 36.7 9.9
Miami (FL) 11.5 7.8 47.5 31.8 11.8 1.3
Florida St. 6.8 0.9 5.5 15.3 22.3 19.4 25.8 8.8 2.1
Syracuse 6.0 1.7 9.2 19.7 32.5 27.2 9.1 0.6
Boston College 11.1 0.4 4.7 14.8 50.7 20.9 7.6 0.9
Notre Dame 12.2 0.0 0.2 5.4 16.5 36.7 36.1 5.1
Georgia Tech 13.3 0.3 4.9 15.8 24.7 52.9 1.4
Louisville 14.8 0.9 1.7 9.5 87.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 15 - 5 1.8 15.6 43.5 39.2
North Carolina 16 - 4 0.6 11.1 55.8 32.4
Wake Forest 12 - 8 2.0 20.5 45.4 32.1
Clemson 12 - 8 3.9 24.6 48.6 22.8
Pittsburgh 11 - 9 5.2 24.5 43.6 26.7
Virginia Tech 9 - 11 3.7 23.2 46.5 26.6
Virginia 13 - 7 18.1 71.0 10.8
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 43.6 41.8 13.2 1.3
Miami (FL) 7 - 13 20.8 52.4 26.8
Florida St. 10 - 10 13.2 38.1 37.6 11.1
Syracuse 11 - 9 25.8 59.9 14.3
Boston College 7 - 13 13.8 39.7 35.5 11.0
Notre Dame 7 - 13 54.4 37.0 8.1 0.4
Georgia Tech 6 - 14 40.8 44.9 13.2 1.1
Louisville 4 - 16 32.7 42.9 20.8 3.6




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 43.1% 7.5 35.6 0.0
North Carolina 92.5% 56.9 35.6 0.0
Wake Forest
Clemson
Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech
Virginia 0.0% 0.0
North Carolina St.
Miami (FL)
Florida St.
Syracuse
Boston College
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
Louisville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 99.9% 23.0% 76.9% 3   6.7 25.5 37.0 24.5 5.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
North Carolina 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2   8.9 39.1 39.1 11.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Wake Forest 65.2% 11.5% 53.7% 11   0.0 0.5 4.3 9.4 9.4 8.7 9.6 16.3 6.9 0.0 34.8 60.7%
Clemson 95.2% 10.6% 84.6% 7   0.0 0.8 5.3 15.4 16.7 21.9 18.0 11.3 5.2 0.7 4.8 94.6%
Pittsburgh 42.6% 6.0% 36.7% 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.9 6.4 7.9 14.3 7.7 0.0 57.4 39.0%
Virginia Tech 8.8% 4.5% 4.3% 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 91.2 4.5%
Virginia 46.4% 4.1% 42.4% 0.1 1.0 2.4 4.7 9.4 18.6 10.3 0.0 53.6 44.2%
North Carolina St. 7.0% 3.7% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.6 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 93.0 3.4%
Miami (FL) 3.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.0 96.6 0.2%
Florida St. 6.9% 3.1% 3.8% 0.1 0.3 1.9 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 93.1 3.9%
Syracuse 10.0% 2.9% 7.1% 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.7 0.2 90.0 7.3%
Boston College 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 97.8 0.0%
Notre Dame 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Georgia Tech 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 99.0 0.0%
Louisville 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Duke 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 93.2% 64.4% 34.1% 16.8% 8.0% 3.6%
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 94.2% 65.3% 35.7% 17.1% 8.1% 3.6%
Wake Forest 65.2% 10.8% 60.8% 36.4% 12.9% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%
Clemson 95.2% 2.0% 94.2% 59.2% 21.3% 8.1% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Pittsburgh 42.6% 11.9% 36.4% 16.4% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 8.8% 4.0% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 46.4% 17.8% 36.1% 13.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 7.0% 2.4% 5.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 3.4% 0.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 6.9% 2.9% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 10.0% 6.3% 6.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.9 0.1 5.9 27.7 40.8 21.4 3.9 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.6 0.3 10.5 36.3 37.5 13.8 1.6 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 3.2 0.1 2.0 18.6 42.9 29.1 6.7 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.4% 1.7 6.6 32.6 44.5 14.7 1.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 66.5% 0.9 33.5 48.6 16.5 1.4 0.0
Final Four 35.7% 0.4 64.3 32.2 3.5 0.1
Final Game 17.4% 0.2 82.6 17.0 0.4
Champion 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8