Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#156
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#138
Pace63.3#321
Improvement+1.5#51

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#189
First Shot-0.3#179
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#186
Layup/Dunks+0.4#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement+1.0#75

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#139
First Shot-3.5#282
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#3
Layups/Dunks+4.8#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#353
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#297
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+0.5#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.5 11.4 13.3
.500 or above 9.8% 21.1% 6.9%
.500 or above in Conference 6.0% 10.1% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.1% 26.5% 37.3%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 20.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 10
Quad 22 - 53 - 15
Quad 33 - 46 - 19
Quad 45 - 111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 289   Niagara W 70-63 83%     1 - 0 -2.8 -1.9 -0.4
  Nov 11, 2023 144   Western Carolina L 61-71 59%     1 - 1 -11.9 -11.2 -1.2
  Nov 16, 2023 21   Auburn L 59-83 11%     1 - 2 -10.3 -6.9 -3.4
  Nov 17, 2023 75   Oklahoma St. W 66-64 OT 27%     2 - 2 +8.9 -2.1 +11.0
  Nov 22, 2023 346   Maryland Eastern Shore W 75-55 92%     3 - 2 +4.6 -0.7 +5.7
  Nov 28, 2023 80   @ South Carolina L 61-70 20%    
  Dec 02, 2023 29   @ Miami (FL) L 65-80 8%    
  Dec 05, 2023 283   Western Michigan W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 09, 2023 6   @ Marquette L 59-80 3%    
  Dec 16, 2023 142   Georgetown W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 19, 2023 300   The Citadel W 71-60 84%    
  Dec 22, 2023 244   Marist W 68-60 76%    
  Dec 30, 2023 45   Virginia L 55-62 26%    
  Jan 03, 2024 58   North Carolina St. L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 06, 2024 7   Duke L 60-74 10%    
  Jan 09, 2024 137   @ Georgia Tech L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 13, 2024 66   Florida St. L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 15, 2024 107   @ Boston College L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 24, 2024 29   Miami (FL) L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 27, 2024 107   Boston College L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 31, 2024 45   @ Virginia L 52-65 13%    
  Feb 03, 2024 39   @ Pittsburgh L 63-77 11%    
  Feb 07, 2024 7   @ Duke L 57-77 4%    
  Feb 10, 2024 63   Virginia Tech L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 14, 2024 137   Georgia Tech W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 21, 2024 155   @ Louisville L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 24, 2024 95   @ Syracuse L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 27, 2024 76   Wake Forest L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 02, 2024 46   Clemson L 65-72 27%    
  Mar 05, 2024 12   @ North Carolina L 62-80 6%    
  Mar 09, 2024 63   @ Virginia Tech L 64-75 17%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 0.8 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.8 0.1 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.2 2.6 0.5 11.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 4.5 6.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 16.0 13th
14th 0.2 1.9 6.0 7.6 4.0 0.8 0.0 20.5 14th
15th 1.4 4.9 7.6 6.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 23.9 15th
Total 1.4 5.1 9.6 13.5 15.6 14.1 12.4 9.7 7.8 4.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 18.2% 0.0    0.0
15-5 5.6% 0.0    0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 77.8% 19.4% 58.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.4%
14-6 0.2% 44.6% 7.2% 37.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.3%
13-7 0.4% 24.2% 24.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 24.2%
12-8 0.8% 11.3% 2.6% 8.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 9.0%
11-9 1.6% 5.2% 3.0% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.3%
10-10 2.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.9%
9-11 4.7% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
8-12 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.7
7-13 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 9.6
6-14 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.4
5-15 14.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-16 15.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-17 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
2-18 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
1-19 5.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.1
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.1 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%