Duke
Atlantic Coast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#12
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#76
Pace67.5#226
Improvement-5.3#360

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#18
First Shot+6.7#33
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#81
Layup/Dunks+5.0#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement-3.0#350

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot+4.0#66
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#16
Layups/Dunks+2.2#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows+2.3#66
Improvement-2.3#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 6.4% 6.7% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 15.1% 15.7% 5.7%
Top 4 Seed 35.5% 36.7% 18.0%
Top 6 Seed 55.9% 57.4% 33.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.1% 88.9% 76.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.1% 86.1% 72.1%
Average Seed 5.5 5.4 6.7
.500 or above 99.3% 99.5% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 97.1% 93.6%
Conference Champion 30.0% 30.6% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four3.2% 3.0% 4.9%
First Round86.8% 87.7% 73.5%
Second Round66.8% 68.0% 49.8%
Sweet Sixteen38.7% 39.6% 26.1%
Elite Eight20.2% 20.9% 11.2%
Final Four10.5% 10.8% 5.0%
Championship Game5.2% 5.4% 1.5%
National Champion2.5% 2.6% 0.9%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 25 - 210 - 8
Quad 37 - 116 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 285   Dartmouth W 92-54 98%     1 - 0 +28.3 +20.1 +9.4
  Nov 10, 2023 2   Arizona L 73-78 47%     1 - 1 +11.6 +1.8 +10.3
  Nov 14, 2023 16   Michigan St. W 74-65 53%     2 - 1 +24.1 +12.0 +12.3
  Nov 17, 2023 306   Bucknell W 90-60 98%     3 - 1 +19.1 +15.3 +4.8
  Nov 21, 2023 200   La Salle W 95-66 96%     4 - 1 +24.3 +15.4 +8.4
  Nov 24, 2023 334   Southern Indiana W 80-62 99%     5 - 1 +3.7 +8.4 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2023 46   @ Arkansas L 75-80 59%     5 - 2 +8.4 +2.1 +6.7
  Dec 02, 2023 104   @ Georgia Tech L 68-72 79%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +3.4 +4.7 -1.7
  Dec 09, 2023 131   Charlotte W 72-56 94%    
  Dec 12, 2023 100   Hofstra W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 20, 2023 7   Baylor L 77-78 47%    
  Dec 30, 2023 255   Queens W 86-62 99%    
  Jan 02, 2024 87   Syracuse W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 06, 2024 153   @ Notre Dame W 72-60 87%    
  Jan 09, 2024 50   @ Pittsburgh W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 104   Georgia Tech W 78-64 91%    
  Jan 20, 2024 50   Pittsburgh W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 23, 2024 157   @ Louisville W 79-66 87%    
  Jan 27, 2024 34   Clemson W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 29, 2024 58   @ Virginia Tech W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 14   @ North Carolina L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 07, 2024 153   Notre Dame W 75-57 95%    
  Feb 10, 2024 97   Boston College W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 12, 2024 70   Wake Forest W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 17, 2024 71   @ Florida St. W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 21, 2024 39   @ Miami (FL) W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 70   @ Wake Forest W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 28, 2024 157   Louisville W 82-63 95%    
  Mar 02, 2024 30   Virginia W 65-58 72%    
  Mar 04, 2024 67   @ North Carolina St. W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 09, 2024 14   North Carolina W 78-75 61%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.6 8.7 9.1 5.0 1.5 30.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.5 7.9 5.8 1.5 0.1 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.2 0.3 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.5 9.8 12.3 16.2 16.5 15.1 10.6 5.1 1.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.0
18-2 98.4% 5.0    4.5 0.5
17-3 85.7% 9.1    6.7 2.1 0.2
16-4 57.6% 8.7    4.3 3.5 0.8 0.0
15-5 27.7% 4.6    1.3 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.8% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.0% 30.0 18.4 8.7 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.1% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.6 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.6% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 2.4 2.2 3.7 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-4 15.1% 99.9% 24.3% 75.6% 3.6 0.6 2.3 4.5 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 16.5% 99.1% 20.0% 79.1% 5.1 0.3 1.7 3.7 5.0 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 98.9%
14-6 16.2% 97.2% 18.9% 78.4% 6.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 3.8 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 96.6%
13-7 12.3% 89.7% 15.0% 74.7% 7.9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.3 87.9%
12-8 9.8% 79.9% 13.3% 66.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 2.0 76.8%
11-9 6.5% 53.9% 12.4% 41.5% 9.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.0 3.0 47.4%
10-10 3.4% 33.4% 9.8% 23.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.3 26.2%
9-11 1.8% 11.7% 4.7% 7.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 7.3%
8-12 0.8% 6.0% 4.7% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4%
7-13 0.3% 9.1% 9.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 88.1% 20.3% 67.8% 5.5 6.4 8.7 9.8 10.6 11.0 9.4 8.9 7.7 6.4 5.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9 85.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 79.7 19.7 0.5