Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#29
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#14
Pace71.4#131
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#9
First Shot+9.2#9
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#136
Layup/Dunks-0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#6
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#96
First Shot+3.4#88
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#229
Layups/Dunks-0.5#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#257
Freethrows+5.1#4
Improvement-0.2#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 2.4% 4.7% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 12.7% 4.2%
Top 4 Seed 21.1% 33.4% 15.9%
Top 6 Seed 38.6% 54.9% 31.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.5% 88.8% 72.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.8% 87.1% 69.9%
Average Seed 6.5 5.7 6.9
.500 or above 98.4% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 92.5% 85.2%
Conference Champion 13.7% 18.6% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four5.7% 3.3% 6.7%
First Round74.7% 87.2% 69.4%
Second Round48.4% 60.2% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen22.2% 30.3% 18.8%
Elite Eight9.5% 13.4% 7.9%
Final Four4.2% 6.0% 3.5%
Championship Game1.8% 2.7% 1.4%
National Champion0.7% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 116 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 353   NJIT W 101-60 99%     1 - 0 +24.5 +12.0 +9.2
  Nov 10, 2023 83   Central Florida W 88-72 82%     2 - 0 +19.2 +9.1 +8.4
  Nov 13, 2023 218   Florida International W 86-80 95%     3 - 0 +0.3 +13.7 -13.2
  Nov 17, 2023 94   Georgia W 79-67 77%     4 - 0 +17.2 +5.9 +10.6
  Nov 19, 2023 44   Kansas St. W 91-83 58%     5 - 0 +18.6 +19.0 -0.7
  Nov 28, 2023 14   @ Kentucky L 78-84 30%    
  Dec 02, 2023 156   Notre Dame W 80-65 92%    
  Dec 06, 2023 347   LIU Brooklyn W 95-66 99.6%   
  Dec 10, 2023 38   Colorado W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 16, 2023 204   La Salle W 88-70 95%    
  Dec 21, 2023 355   Stonehill W 93-63 99.6%   
  Dec 29, 2023 298   North Florida W 90-67 98%    
  Jan 03, 2024 46   Clemson W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 06, 2024 76   @ Wake Forest W 82-79 60%    
  Jan 10, 2024 155   Louisville W 84-69 91%    
  Jan 13, 2024 63   @ Virginia Tech W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 17, 2024 66   Florida St. W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 20, 2024 95   @ Syracuse W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 24, 2024 156   @ Notre Dame W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 27, 2024 39   Pittsburgh W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 30, 2024 58   @ North Carolina St. W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 03, 2024 63   Virginia Tech W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 05, 2024 45   @ Virginia L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 10, 2024 12   North Carolina W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 14, 2024 46   @ Clemson L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 107   @ Boston College W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 21, 2024 7   Duke L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 137   Georgia Tech W 85-71 89%    
  Feb 26, 2024 12   @ North Carolina L 77-83 30%    
  Mar 06, 2024 107   Boston College W 82-70 85%    
  Mar 09, 2024 66   @ Florida St. W 81-79 56%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 4.0 2.9 1.4 0.3 13.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.6 4.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.8 4.0 1.1 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.4 2.9 5.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.2 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.5 7.5 9.7 12.2 13.4 12.9 11.9 9.0 6.0 3.2 1.4 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.6% 1.4    1.3 0.1
18-2 90.8% 2.9    2.3 0.6 0.0
17-3 67.1% 4.0    2.5 1.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 36.6% 3.3    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.9% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 8.0 4.3 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.2% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.0% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.0 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 9.0% 99.9% 14.9% 85.0% 4.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 11.9% 99.5% 14.9% 84.6% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 12.9% 97.7% 11.3% 86.4% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.2 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 97.4%
13-7 13.4% 93.5% 9.0% 84.5% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.5 3.1 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 92.9%
12-8 12.2% 82.4% 7.8% 74.6% 8.9 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.1 2.1 80.9%
11-9 9.7% 63.8% 6.5% 57.3% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 1.5 0.1 3.5 61.3%
10-10 7.5% 44.9% 5.9% 39.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.2 4.1 41.4%
9-11 5.5% 16.4% 4.0% 12.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 4.6 12.9%
8-12 3.3% 4.5% 2.3% 2.2% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2 2.3%
7-13 2.0% 3.2% 2.6% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.6%
6-14 1.1% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.5% 10.7% 66.8% 6.5 2.4 4.4 6.4 7.9 8.5 9.1 8.5 8.3 8.5 8.0 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.5 74.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 68.3 31.7