Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#157
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#216
Pace69.5#175
Improvement+1.6#83

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#147
First Shot-3.0#260
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#19
Layup/Dunks-2.6#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#332
Freethrows+5.6#9
Improvement-0.2#198

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#195
First Shot-0.3#186
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#226
Layups/Dunks-3.1#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#88
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement+1.8#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.7 12.5 14.1
.500 or above 5.8% 14.2% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 3.9% 10.7% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 40.1% 21.3% 43.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 10
Quad 22 - 62 - 16
Quad 33 - 35 - 19
Quad 46 - 111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 310   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94-93 86%     1 - 0 -10.2 +2.4 -12.8
  Nov 10, 2023 208   Chattanooga L 71-81 70%     1 - 1 -15.1 -9.2 -5.2
  Nov 15, 2023 356   Coppin St. W 61-41 94%     2 - 1 +2.7 -12.7 +17.3
  Nov 19, 2023 25   Texas L 80-81 12%     2 - 2 +11.7 +16.9 -5.3
  Nov 20, 2023 64   Indiana L 66-74 22%     2 - 3 +0.2 -4.6 +5.1
  Nov 26, 2023 254   New Mexico St. W 90-84 OT 78%     3 - 3 -2.0 +3.9 -6.3
  Nov 29, 2023 226   Bellarmine W 73-68 72%     4 - 3 -0.9 -3.9 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2023 58   @ Virginia Tech L 68-79 14%    
  Dec 09, 2023 192   @ DePaul L 73-74 44%    
  Dec 13, 2023 240   Arkansas St. W 76-69 75%    
  Dec 17, 2023 182   Pepperdine W 78-74 66%    
  Dec 21, 2023 18   Kentucky L 73-84 15%    
  Jan 03, 2024 30   @ Virginia L 55-70 9%    
  Jan 06, 2024 50   Pittsburgh L 72-78 27%    
  Jan 10, 2024 39   @ Miami (FL) L 70-84 10%    
  Jan 13, 2024 67   North Carolina St. L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 17, 2024 14   @ North Carolina L 69-87 5%    
  Jan 20, 2024 70   @ Wake Forest L 71-82 17%    
  Jan 23, 2024 12   Duke L 66-79 13%    
  Jan 27, 2024 30   Virginia L 58-67 21%    
  Jan 30, 2024 34   @ Clemson L 66-81 10%    
  Feb 03, 2024 71   Florida St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 07, 2024 87   @ Syracuse L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 10, 2024 104   Georgia Tech L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 13, 2024 97   @ Boston College L 68-76 26%    
  Feb 17, 2024 50   @ Pittsburgh L 69-81 14%    
  Feb 21, 2024 153   Notre Dame W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 28, 2024 12   @ Duke L 63-82 5%    
  Mar 02, 2024 87   Syracuse L 74-77 41%    
  Mar 05, 2024 58   Virginia Tech L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 09, 2024 97   Boston College L 71-73 44%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.1 5.0 1.2 0.0 15.9 13th
14th 0.3 2.3 6.2 8.6 5.6 1.3 0.1 24.3 14th
15th 1.4 5.0 8.4 8.1 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 28.2 15th
Total 1.4 5.3 10.6 14.8 16.2 14.8 12.9 9.5 6.7 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 21.7% 0.0    0.0
14-6 12.8% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 78.3% 78.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.3%
14-6 0.1% 61.7% 25.5% 36.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.6%
13-7 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 11.1%
12-8 0.6% 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.0%
11-9 1.0% 6.8% 4.6% 2.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4%
10-10 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 2.1
9-11 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
8-12 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.2 0.1 0.0 6.6
7-13 9.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 9.5
6-14 12.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.9
5-15 14.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.8
4-16 16.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 16.1
3-17 14.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.7
2-18 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
1-19 5.3% 5.3
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%