North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#58
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#58
Pace73.5#73
Improvement-0.6#236

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#44
First Shot+3.8#80
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#77
Layup/Dunks+0.2#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#45
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement+0.2#166

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#88
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#132
Layups/Dunks-1.5#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#104
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement-0.8#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.8% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 7.0% 9.7% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.9% 41.0% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.5% 37.5% 20.1%
Average Seed 8.5 8.3 8.9
.500 or above 83.3% 90.6% 74.8%
.500 or above in Conference 61.7% 67.9% 54.4%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.1% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.5% 2.9%
First Four5.8% 6.8% 4.7%
First Round29.9% 37.4% 20.9%
Second Round15.1% 19.0% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 6.5% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.5% 1.1%
Final Four0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 36 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 300   The Citadel W 72-59 95%     1 - 0 +2.5 -4.6 +7.6
  Nov 10, 2023 151   Abilene Christian W 84-64 85%     2 - 0 +17.7 +14.2 +4.6
  Nov 17, 2023 344   Charleston Southern W 87-53 98%     3 - 0 +19.0 +7.2 +12.8
  Nov 23, 2023 154   Vanderbilt W 84-78 79%     4 - 0 +6.6 -1.3 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2023 11   BYU L 86-95 26%     4 - 1 +6.7 +12.3 -4.7
  Nov 28, 2023 96   @ Mississippi W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 02, 2023 107   @ Boston College W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 06, 2023 346   Maryland Eastern Shore W 86-62 99%    
  Dec 12, 2023 247   Tennessee Martin W 89-73 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 8   Tennessee L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 20, 2023 148   Saint Louis W 84-73 84%    
  Dec 23, 2023 310   Detroit Mercy W 88-68 97%    
  Jan 03, 2024 156   @ Notre Dame W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 06, 2024 45   Virginia W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 10, 2024 12   North Carolina L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 13, 2024 155   @ Louisville W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 16, 2024 76   Wake Forest W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 20, 2024 63   Virginia Tech W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 24, 2024 45   @ Virginia L 62-67 34%    
  Jan 27, 2024 95   @ Syracuse W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 30, 2024 29   Miami (FL) L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 03, 2024 137   Georgia Tech W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 07, 2024 39   Pittsburgh W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 10, 2024 76   @ Wake Forest L 79-80 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 46   @ Clemson L 74-79 35%    
  Feb 20, 2024 95   Syracuse W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 24, 2024 107   Boston College W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 27, 2024 66   @ Florida St. L 78-80 43%    
  Mar 02, 2024 12   @ North Carolina L 74-84 20%    
  Mar 04, 2024 7   Duke L 71-77 30%    
  Mar 09, 2024 39   @ Pittsburgh L 76-81 33%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.9 1.8 0.3 9.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.3 1.1 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.4 2.7 4.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 1.7 0.3 7.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.3 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.6 0.4 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.2 2.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.0 7.1 9.3 10.9 12.7 11.9 11.3 9.2 6.6 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 94.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 86.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 64.3% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 36.3% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 12.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.8% 98.7% 12.6% 86.2% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-5 4.9% 94.7% 10.2% 84.5% 6.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 94.1%
14-6 6.6% 85.7% 7.6% 78.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.9 84.5%
13-7 9.2% 68.8% 6.3% 62.5% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.0 2.9 66.7%
12-8 11.3% 47.8% 5.9% 41.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 1.7 0.2 5.9 44.5%
11-9 11.9% 26.8% 4.6% 22.3% 10.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.2 8.7 23.3%
10-10 12.7% 12.8% 3.8% 9.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 11.1 9.3%
9-11 10.9% 4.5% 3.2% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4 1.4%
8-12 9.3% 2.4% 2.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.1
7-13 7.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0
6-14 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
5-15 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-16 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.9% 4.8% 28.1% 8.5 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.3 4.9 6.2 5.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 67.1 29.5%