Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#39
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#72
Pace74.4#57
Improvement-0.6#239

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#47
First Shot+4.0#75
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#96
Layup/Dunks-0.2#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#25
Freethrows-0.2#192
Improvement-0.9#282

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#41
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#19
Layups/Dunks+4.6#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
Freethrows+1.0#125
Improvement+0.3#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 6.5% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 13.1% 15.0% 5.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.2% 50.7% 33.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.7% 46.1% 29.7%
Average Seed 8.0 7.9 8.8
.500 or above 95.6% 97.1% 89.8%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 80.7% 70.3%
Conference Champion 7.2% 8.0% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four7.4% 7.5% 7.0%
First Round43.6% 47.0% 30.3%
Second Round24.8% 27.2% 15.7%
Sweet Sixteen9.5% 10.5% 5.5%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.4% 2.3%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.7%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 37 - 9
Quad 36 - 114 - 10
Quad 48 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 360   N.C. A&T W 100-52 99%     1 - 0 +29.0 +10.0 +16.3
  Nov 10, 2023 259   Binghamton W 89-60 95%     2 - 0 +20.7 +7.2 +12.0
  Nov 13, 2023 228   Florida Gulf Coast W 86-74 94%     3 - 0 +5.7 +8.4 -2.6
  Nov 17, 2023 251   Jacksonville W 107-56 95%     4 - 0 +43.3 +25.5 +14.2
  Nov 22, 2023 25   Florida L 71-86 42%     4 - 1 -2.0 -4.0 +3.5
  Nov 24, 2023 157   Oregon St. W 76-51 84%     5 - 1 +25.5 +8.8 +17.9
  Nov 28, 2023 93   Missouri W 80-71 80%    
  Dec 03, 2023 46   Clemson W 78-74 63%    
  Dec 06, 2023 102   @ West Virginia W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 09, 2023 221   Canisius W 83-66 94%    
  Dec 16, 2023 348   South Carolina St. W 94-67 99%    
  Dec 20, 2023 207   Purdue Fort Wayne W 84-68 93%    
  Dec 30, 2023 95   @ Syracuse W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 02, 2024 12   North Carolina L 77-79 45%    
  Jan 06, 2024 155   @ Louisville W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 09, 2024 7   Duke L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 16, 2024 95   Syracuse W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 20, 2024 7   @ Duke L 68-78 19%    
  Jan 23, 2024 137   @ Georgia Tech W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 29   @ Miami (FL) L 77-82 34%    
  Jan 31, 2024 76   Wake Forest W 82-75 74%    
  Feb 03, 2024 156   Notre Dame W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 07, 2024 58   @ North Carolina St. L 78-79 47%    
  Feb 13, 2024 45   @ Virginia L 63-65 41%    
  Feb 17, 2024 155   Louisville W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 20, 2024 76   @ Wake Forest W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 63   Virginia Tech W 79-73 68%    
  Feb 27, 2024 46   @ Clemson L 75-77 41%    
  Mar 02, 2024 107   @ Boston College W 76-72 63%    
  Mar 05, 2024 66   Florida St. W 81-75 70%    
  Mar 09, 2024 58   North Carolina St. W 81-76 67%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.7 0.9 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.4 2.4 3.3 1.1 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.4 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.4 0.2 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.8 8.3 10.5 12.3 13.0 12.7 10.9 8.5 5.8 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 91.8% 1.2    0.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 71.6% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
16-4 38.4% 2.2    0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 11.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 3.7 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.3% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.0% 99.5% 17.9% 81.6% 4.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
16-4 5.8% 98.7% 14.6% 84.1% 5.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.5%
15-5 8.5% 94.4% 11.8% 82.6% 7.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.5 93.6%
14-6 10.9% 83.7% 11.0% 72.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 1.8 81.7%
13-7 12.7% 67.6% 8.6% 59.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.1 64.6%
12-8 13.0% 44.3% 6.9% 37.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.2 0.2 7.2 40.2%
11-9 12.3% 25.8% 6.4% 19.3% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.4 9.1 20.7%
10-10 10.5% 12.6% 4.6% 8.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 8.4%
9-11 8.3% 4.3% 3.5% 0.8% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.9 0.9%
8-12 5.8% 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.3%
7-13 3.6% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 47.2% 7.9% 39.4% 8.0 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.8 6.0 6.6 7.8 7.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 52.8 42.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 76.3 15.8 7.9