Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#71
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#81
Pace72.4#94
Improvement-1.3#277

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#83
First Shot+1.5#135
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#78
Layup/Dunks-0.7#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#72
Freethrows-2.3#301
Improvement-1.4#287

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#60
First Shot+2.5#96
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#58
Layups/Dunks-3.7#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#12
Freethrows-2.7#307
Improvement+0.1#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.8% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 23.8% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.8% 20.7% 10.9%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.8
.500 or above 70.3% 74.9% 51.6%
.500 or above in Conference 46.3% 48.8% 36.0%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 3.7% 7.8%
First Four4.6% 5.1% 2.9%
First Round19.4% 21.1% 12.3%
Second Round8.9% 9.8% 4.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Neutral) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 36 - 213 - 13
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 212   Kennesaw St. W 94-67 88%     1 - 0 +21.8 +1.2 +16.0
  Nov 13, 2023 319   Central Michigan W 94-67 95%     2 - 0 +15.3 +12.0 +2.3
  Nov 17, 2023 33   @ Florida L 68-89 24%     2 - 1 -6.1 -2.3 -2.5
  Nov 20, 2023 126   UNLV W 83-75 69%     3 - 1 +10.5 +9.6 +1.0
  Nov 21, 2023 40   Colorado W 77-71 OT 36%     4 - 1 +17.3 -1.3 +17.8
  Nov 29, 2023 88   Georgia L 66-68 68%     4 - 2 +0.7 -1.9 +2.5
  Dec 02, 2023 14   @ North Carolina L 70-78 15%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +10.5 +0.1 +10.8
  Dec 09, 2023 191   South Florida W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 16, 2023 95   SMU W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 19, 2023 307   North Florida W 85-66 96%    
  Dec 22, 2023 176   Winthrop W 82-71 85%    
  Dec 30, 2023 151   Lipscomb W 81-71 83%    
  Jan 03, 2024 104   Georgia Tech W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 06, 2024 58   Virginia Tech W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 09, 2024 70   Wake Forest W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 153   @ Notre Dame W 70-66 65%    
  Jan 17, 2024 39   @ Miami (FL) L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 20, 2024 34   Clemson L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 23, 2024 87   @ Syracuse L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 14   North Carolina L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 03, 2024 157   @ Louisville W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 06, 2024 97   @ Boston College L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 30   Virginia L 62-64 45%    
  Feb 13, 2024 58   @ Virginia Tech L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 17, 2024 12   Duke L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 20, 2024 97   Boston College W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 24, 2024 34   @ Clemson L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 27, 2024 67   North Carolina St. W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 02, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 05, 2024 50   @ Pittsburgh L 72-77 32%    
  Mar 09, 2024 39   Miami (FL) L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 6.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.1 2.3 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.4 2.6 4.6 1.9 0.2 9.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.1 0.2 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.0 0.4 9.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 5.4 8.4 10.4 11.3 12.5 12.7 11.1 8.6 6.2 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 88.3% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 49.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
15-5 21.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.0% 99.0% 16.3% 82.7% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.8%
15-5 2.3% 98.3% 11.0% 87.3% 6.7 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
14-6 3.8% 89.1% 7.5% 81.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 88.2%
13-7 6.2% 74.4% 7.2% 67.1% 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 1.6 72.4%
12-8 8.6% 47.3% 5.0% 42.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.0 4.5 44.6%
11-9 11.1% 29.0% 6.0% 23.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 24.5%
10-10 12.7% 11.7% 3.1% 8.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.2 8.9%
9-11 12.5% 3.9% 3.0% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.9%
8-12 11.3% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.1
7-13 10.4% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
6-14 8.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.1 0.0 8.3
5-15 5.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.3
4-16 3.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-19 0.2% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.8% 3.8% 18.0% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.7 2.7 3.5 5.0 4.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 78.2 18.8%