Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#63
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#57
Pace68.8#191
Improvement-0.7#252

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#41
First Shot+7.3#23
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#258
Layup/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#131
Freethrows+4.7#11
Improvement-3.1#358

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#102
First Shot+2.5#101
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#181
Layups/Dunks+2.9#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#265
Freethrows+2.1#66
Improvement+2.4#11
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 3.7% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 4.9% 10.4% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.0% 49.0% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.1% 46.2% 24.2%
Average Seed 8.8 8.3 9.1
.500 or above 81.4% 92.0% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 63.3% 72.0% 60.8%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.5% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.8% 1.8%
First Four6.5% 7.6% 6.2%
First Round28.7% 44.8% 24.0%
Second Round13.4% 22.8% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 7.5% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.5% 1.2%
Final Four0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 35 - 212 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 361   Coppin St. W 100-55 99%     1 - 0 +25.5 +15.1 +8.2
  Nov 10, 2023 80   South Carolina L 77-79 58%     1 - 1 +4.4 +18.5 -14.4
  Nov 15, 2023 311   Campbell W 60-44 96%     2 - 1 +4.7 -9.9 +16.8
  Nov 19, 2023 266   Wofford W 98-76 94%     3 - 1 +13.4 +14.9 -2.4
  Nov 23, 2023 79   Boise St. W 82-75 57%     4 - 1 +13.6 +10.9 +2.4
  Nov 24, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 71-62 36%     5 - 1 +21.3 +10.8 +11.0
  Nov 26, 2023 18   Florida Atlantic L 50-84 28%     5 - 2 -19.4 -18.6 +0.0
  Nov 29, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 71-79 22%    
  Dec 03, 2023 155   Louisville W 79-68 85%    
  Dec 09, 2023 315   Valparaiso W 80-60 97%    
  Dec 16, 2023 100   Vermont W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 21, 2023 264   American W 79-62 95%    
  Dec 30, 2023 76   @ Wake Forest L 77-78 45%    
  Jan 06, 2024 66   @ Florida St. L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 10, 2024 46   Clemson W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 13, 2024 29   Miami (FL) L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 17, 2024 45   @ Virginia L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 20, 2024 58   @ North Carolina St. L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 23, 2024 107   Boston College W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 27, 2024 137   Georgia Tech W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 29, 2024 7   Duke L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 03, 2024 29   @ Miami (FL) L 75-82 26%    
  Feb 10, 2024 156   @ Notre Dame W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 13, 2024 66   Florida St. W 78-75 62%    
  Feb 17, 2024 12   @ North Carolina L 72-82 18%    
  Feb 19, 2024 45   Virginia W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 24, 2024 39   @ Pittsburgh L 73-79 32%    
  Feb 27, 2024 95   @ Syracuse W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 02, 2024 76   Wake Forest W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 05, 2024 155   @ Louisville W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 09, 2024 156   Notre Dame W 75-64 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 4.9 3.4 0.5 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.7 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.6 6.6 9.8 11.2 12.9 13.2 11.8 9.6 7.3 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 91.4% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 67.1% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 35.8% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 10.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 99.4% 12.0% 87.5% 4.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
16-4 2.5% 99.4% 9.1% 90.3% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-5 4.4% 94.0% 9.9% 84.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 93.4%
14-6 7.3% 86.9% 7.3% 79.6% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.0 85.8%
13-7 9.6% 68.2% 5.7% 62.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.1 66.2%
12-8 11.8% 45.3% 4.4% 40.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.2 6.5 42.8%
11-9 13.2% 25.1% 3.5% 21.6% 10.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.9 22.4%
10-10 12.9% 10.7% 3.6% 7.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.5 7.4%
9-11 11.2% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.8 1.2%
8-12 9.8% 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.6 0.1%
7-13 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
6-14 4.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-15 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 32.0% 4.1% 27.9% 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.0 4.5 5.4 6.7 6.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 68.0 29.1%