Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Houston 100.0%   1   25 - 3 12 - 3 27 - 4 14 - 4 +20.6      +8.5 18 +12.2 1 60.8 349 +21.8 3 +20.5 1
13 Iowa St. 99.9%   3   22 - 6 11 - 4 24 - 7 13 - 5 +16.1      +5.4 52 +10.7 2 69.2 160 +16.5 8 +19.1 2
15 Baylor 99.8%   4   19 - 8 9 - 6 21 - 9 11 - 7 +15.3      +11.0 7 +4.3 57 65.0 283 +15.3 12 +14.6 3
17 Kansas 100.0%   4   20 - 7 9 - 6 21 - 9 10 - 8 +15.0      +6.1 41 +9.0 8 71.4 95 +16.3 10 +13.6 4
19 BYU 95.9%   5   20 - 8 8 - 7 22 - 9 10 - 8 +14.1      +10.0 10 +4.1 59 71.8 88 +13.3 23 +12.6 7
24 TCU 82.3%   6   19 - 9 8 - 7 21 - 10 10 - 8 +13.1      +7.1 28 +6.0 28 73.3 57 +12.3 33 +13.1 6
26 Texas 78.7%   7   18 - 10 7 - 8 20 - 11 9 - 9 +13.0      +7.6 25 +5.3 41 67.8 204 +12.3 32 +11.8 8
35 Oklahoma 73.4%   9   19 - 9 7 - 8 20 - 11 8 - 10 +11.6      +4.6 71 +7.0 21 67.1 224 +12.6 28 +11.1 9
36 Texas Tech 71.6%   8   19 - 9 8 - 7 21 - 10 10 - 8 +11.6      +8.3 19 +3.2 84 66.0 255 +12.5 30 +13.2 5
43 Cincinnati 15.7%   16 - 12 5 - 10 18 - 13 7 - 11 +10.8      +4.3 77 +6.5 25 68.7 172 +8.7 68 +8.5 12
58 Central Florida 4.7%   15 - 12 6 - 9 16 - 14 7 - 11 +9.1      +1.2 147 +7.9 14 70.9 111 +7.3 85 +9.0 11
63 Kansas St. 14.3%   17 - 11 7 - 8 18 - 13 8 - 10 +8.8      +1.5 131 +7.3 19 67.8 202 +10.1 56 +10.3 10
98 Oklahoma St. 1.4%   12 - 16 4 - 11 13 - 18 5 - 13 +5.9      +3.4 93 +2.4 108 68.1 198 +3.1 124 +5.8 14
119 West Virginia 0.7%   9 - 19 4 - 11 10 - 21 5 - 13 +3.4      +1.4 136 +2.0 118 70.5 122 +2.1 133 +6.3 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Houston 1.0 95.2 4.8
Iowa St. 1.8 22.6 76.1 1.3
Baylor 3.6 0.1 8.4 59.0 14.5 9.7 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.0
Kansas 4.0 0.1 3.6 39.0 27.7 19.1 6.2 3.3 0.9 0.1
BYU 4.9 1.8 14.9 31.2 19.8 12.6 13.8 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
TCU 5.0 0.6 16.2 28.7 20.4 13.6 13.6 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
Texas 7.1 2.0 8.4 8.1 14.1 23.9 20.8 15.8 5.9 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 8.2 0.3 2.7 4.1 8.9 15.2 18.7 26.9 16.2 6.1 0.9
Texas Tech 5.0 0.8 21.7 21.0 18.6 16.3 12.8 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
Cincinnati 10.5 0.0 0.8 6.2 14.3 23.0 31.1 21.5 2.8 0.3
Central Florida 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.6 9.5 20.0 34.9 29.1 0.4
Kansas St. 8.9 0.3 1.4 2.0 4.6 8.2 12.9 28.7 31.1 9.9 1.0
Oklahoma St. 13.2 0.1 0.5 1.9 6.4 60.7 30.5
West Virginia 13.1 0.1 0.6 3.4 8.8 57.7 29.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 14 - 4 1.5 13.0 40.2 45.3
Iowa St. 13 - 5 4.4 22.9 43.1 29.6
Baylor 11 - 7 6.4 27.6 42.3 23.8
Kansas 10 - 8 10.0 47.2 35.6 7.1
BYU 10 - 8 3.8 28.3 49.2 18.7
TCU 10 - 8 4.8 27.4 47.7 20.1
Texas 9 - 9 4.6 29.0 48.9 17.5
Oklahoma 8 - 10 17.5 44.5 31.1 6.9
Texas Tech 10 - 8 7.3 29.6 42.1 20.9
Cincinnati 7 - 11 4.0 26.4 48.5 21.1
Central Florida 7 - 11 39.1 42.1 16.5 2.3
Kansas St. 8 - 10 37.0 42.6 17.7 2.6
Oklahoma St. 5 - 13 43.4 43.3 12.2 1.2
West Virginia 5 - 13 43.1 41.1 14.2 1.7




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 95.2% 77.4 17.6 0.2
Iowa St. 22.6% 4.8 17.6 0.2
Baylor 0.1% 0.0 0.1
Kansas 0.1% 0.0 0.1
BYU
TCU
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.
West Virginia


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1   77.4 22.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 99.9% 11.8% 88.1% 3   4.6 21.3 39.4 25.7 6.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Baylor 99.8% 10.4% 89.4% 4   0.8 7.3 25.0 34.2 21.2 6.4 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 99.8%
Kansas 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4   0.8 7.5 30.0 37.4 17.6 4.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
BYU 95.9% 8.3% 87.6% 5   0.0 0.5 5.7 18.0 29.1 22.0 11.5 4.8 2.2 1.6 0.5 4.1 95.5%
TCU 82.3% 6.8% 75.6% 6   0.0 1.1 6.2 12.7 13.6 14.7 12.4 10.2 8.8 2.6 0.0 17.7 81.0%
Texas 78.7% 6.7% 72.1% 7   0.0 0.6 4.4 11.0 12.7 14.8 12.0 9.5 9.9 3.7 0.0 21.3 77.2%
Oklahoma 73.4% 4.9% 68.4% 9   0.0 0.3 1.9 6.2 10.0 12.2 10.8 12.0 14.0 5.9 0.1 26.6 72.0%
Texas Tech 71.6% 4.9% 66.7% 8   0.2 2.4 9.1 11.2 12.1 12.1 11.5 9.8 3.0 0.0 28.4 70.1%
Cincinnati 15.7% 4.1% 11.7% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 5.1 5.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.3 12.2%
Central Florida 4.7% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.4 95.3 2.0%
Kansas St. 14.3% 2.7% 11.6% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.8 5.0 0.6 0.0 85.7 11.9%
Oklahoma St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 98.6 0.0%
West Virginia 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.9% 79.9% 57.9% 37.6% 22.6% 13.3%
Iowa St. 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 90.9% 58.6% 27.8% 12.5% 5.3% 2.2%
Baylor 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 85.2% 50.6% 21.2% 9.2% 3.7% 1.4%
Kansas 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 86.4% 51.2% 21.1% 8.9% 3.5% 1.4%
BYU 95.9% 1.0% 95.5% 70.9% 34.2% 12.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.7%
TCU 82.3% 5.4% 80.1% 50.1% 19.0% 7.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Texas 78.7% 7.0% 75.6% 46.7% 16.8% 6.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Oklahoma 73.4% 10.7% 68.3% 37.3% 11.3% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Texas Tech 71.6% 6.1% 68.6% 38.2% 12.0% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Cincinnati 15.7% 5.7% 13.0% 5.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 4.7% 1.0% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 14.3% 6.1% 11.2% 4.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 1.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.4 0.1 2.0 13.9 37.8 36.4 9.2 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 8.2 0.0 0.2 3.2 18.7 40.7 31.0 6.0 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.6 20.4 32.4 26.8 10.8 1.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.4 0.3 4.1 17.1 33.5 30.0 12.1 2.5 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 90.5% 1.6 9.5 37.2 36.4 14.3 2.4 0.2 0.0
Final Four 64.3% 0.8 35.7 49.0 13.9 1.3 0.0
Final Game 36.8% 0.4 63.2 34.3 2.5
Champion 19.6% 0.2 80.4 19.6