BYU
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#11
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#11
Pace72.9#88
Improvement-0.4#222

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#18
First Shot+5.3#52
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#33
Layup/Dunks-2.8#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#4
Freethrows-1.4#258
Improvement+0.6#114

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#19
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#53
Layups/Dunks+5.0#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-9.0#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#29
Freethrows+4.1#13
Improvement-1.0#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.2% 0.7%
#1 Seed 11.0% 11.5% 3.9%
Top 2 Seed 25.8% 26.8% 11.5%
Top 4 Seed 54.4% 55.9% 34.4%
Top 6 Seed 74.2% 75.6% 54.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.5% 94.1% 85.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.7% 93.4% 84.3%
Average Seed 4.4 4.3 5.6
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 86.4% 74.3%
Conference Champion 16.2% 16.7% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four2.3% 2.2% 3.6%
First Round92.4% 93.0% 83.7%
Second Round74.1% 75.2% 59.5%
Sweet Sixteen43.3% 44.2% 31.7%
Elite Eight22.0% 22.7% 13.6%
Final Four11.0% 11.3% 6.6%
Championship Game5.4% 5.6% 2.8%
National Champion2.6% 2.7% 1.5%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Neutral) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 5
Quad 26 - 113 - 7
Quad 34 - 017 - 7
Quad 47 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 358   Houston Christian W 110-63 99%     1 - 0 +29.0 +10.6 +12.0
  Nov 10, 2023 22   San Diego St. W 74-65 70%     2 - 0 +19.3 +7.1 +12.2
  Nov 15, 2023 290   SE Louisiana W 105-48 98%     3 - 0 +47.1 +23.3 +22.6
  Nov 18, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 93-50 99%     4 - 0 +28.7 +17.3 +13.5
  Nov 23, 2023 86   Arizona St. W 77-49 82%     5 - 0 +33.9 +12.0 +22.9
  Nov 24, 2023 58   North Carolina St. W 95-86 74%     6 - 0 +18.0 +16.2 +0.9
  Nov 30, 2023 166   Fresno St. W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 05, 2023 200   Evansville W 84-63 97%    
  Dec 09, 2023 40   @ Utah W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 13, 2023 254   Denver W 93-69 99%    
  Dec 16, 2023 186   Georgia St. W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 22, 2023 210   Bellarmine W 81-60 97%    
  Dec 30, 2023 149   Wyoming W 81-63 95%    
  Jan 06, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 09, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 80-83 39%    
  Jan 13, 2024 83   @ Central Florida W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 16, 2024 33   Iowa St. W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 51   @ Texas Tech W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 23, 2024 3   Houston L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 30   Texas W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 03, 2024 102   @ West Virginia W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 06, 2024 24   @ Oklahoma L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 44   Kansas St. W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 13, 2024 83   Central Florida W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 17, 2024 75   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 20, 2024 13   Baylor W 83-80 61%    
  Feb 24, 2024 44   @ Kansas St. W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 27, 2024 4   @ Kansas L 73-79 29%    
  Mar 02, 2024 23   TCU W 80-74 69%    
  Mar 06, 2024 33   @ Iowa St. W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 09, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 78-66 85%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 5.0 3.7 1.5 0.2 16.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.0 5.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.6 4.7 1.1 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.1 1.0 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.1 0.9 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 4.6 1.2 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.9 0.2 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.2 8.9 12.4 13.3 14.3 13.2 10.5 7.3 4.0 1.5 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.3% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-2 92.2% 3.7    3.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 68.5% 5.0    3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 38.9% 4.1    1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.4% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.2% 16.2 9.4 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.0% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.4 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.3% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 1.7 3.1 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.2 2.6 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.2% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 2.9 1.1 3.7 5.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.3% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 3.8 0.3 1.6 4.1 4.9 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.3% 99.7% 9.5% 90.2% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.7 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 12.4% 99.3% 6.5% 92.8% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.8 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
9-9 8.9% 96.5% 6.7% 89.8% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.3%
8-10 6.2% 84.2% 4.5% 79.6% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.0 83.4%
7-11 4.1% 57.6% 2.8% 54.7% 10.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.7 56.3%
6-12 2.3% 29.5% 3.5% 26.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.6 26.9%
5-13 1.2% 7.0% 2.3% 4.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.8%
4-14 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.5% 10.4% 83.1% 4.4 11.0 14.8 15.0 13.7 10.9 8.9 6.5 4.4 3.4 2.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.5 92.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5