Oklahoma
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#24
Expected Predictive Rating+19.8#8
Pace66.5#258
Improvement-0.2#198

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#39
First Shot+4.6#64
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#109
Layup/Dunks+7.2#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#199
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-0.2#200

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#21
First Shot+6.7#20
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#151
Layups/Dunks+2.4#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#122
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement+0.0#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.3% 9.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 29.0% 29.0% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 50.4% 50.5% 23.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.1% 81.2% 42.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.8% 79.9% 40.2%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 7.3
.500 or above 96.1% 96.1% 81.1%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 64.0% 34.2%
Conference Champion 5.4% 5.4% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.7% 4.5%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 7.2%
First Round78.7% 78.8% 42.3%
Second Round53.8% 53.9% 29.7%
Sweet Sixteen26.1% 26.2% 11.7%
Elite Eight11.2% 11.2% 11.7%
Final Four4.9% 4.9% 3.6%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 32 - 013 - 10
Quad 48 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 313   Central Michigan W 89-59 98%     1 - 0 +18.6 +7.7 +9.8
  Nov 10, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 82-43 99.6%    2 - 0 +16.8 +8.8 +11.6
  Nov 14, 2023 216   Texas St. W 93-54 95%     3 - 0 +33.4 +20.1 +13.1
  Nov 17, 2023 326   UT Rio Grande Valley W 90-66 98%     4 - 0 +11.2 +4.5 +5.0
  Nov 23, 2023 37   Iowa W 79-67 56%     5 - 0 +23.6 +6.9 +16.5
  Nov 24, 2023 32   USC W 72-70 52%     6 - 0 +14.5 +8.3 +6.3
  Nov 30, 2023 354   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 90-60 99.8%   
  Dec 05, 2023 47   Providence W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 09, 2023 53   Arkansas W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 16, 2023 321   Green Bay W 78-53 99%    
  Dec 20, 2023 12   North Carolina L 71-74 41%    
  Dec 28, 2023 341   Central Arkansas W 85-57 99%    
  Dec 31, 2023 246   Monmouth W 80-60 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 33   Iowa St. W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 09, 2024 23   @ TCU L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 4   @ Kansas L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 17, 2024 102   West Virginia W 73-61 85%    
  Jan 20, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 23, 2024 30   Texas W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 51   Texas Tech W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 30, 2024 44   @ Kansas St. L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 03, 2024 83   @ Central Florida W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 06, 2024 11   BYU W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 10, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 13, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 17, 2024 4   Kansas L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 24, 2024 75   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 28, 2024 33   @ Iowa St. L 65-67 42%    
  Mar 02, 2024 3   Houston L 63-66 39%    
  Mar 05, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 72-68 65%    
  Mar 09, 2024 30   @ Texas L 71-74 41%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.0 0.8 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.3 1.2 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 5.7 1.9 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.2 0.2 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.1 0.2 4.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 4.4 6.7 9.2 11.8 14.0 13.6 12.0 9.8 6.8 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.5% 0.7    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 69.5% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.3% 1.8    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 18.8% 81.3% 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.5% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.3 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.8% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 3.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.8% 100.0% 8.7% 91.2% 3.8 0.2 0.9 3.0 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.0% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 4.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 13.6% 99.5% 6.7% 92.8% 5.9 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.4 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 14.0% 96.3% 5.7% 90.7% 7.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 96.1%
8-10 11.8% 85.1% 3.9% 81.2% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 1.8 84.5%
7-11 9.2% 58.5% 3.0% 55.4% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.2 3.8 57.2%
6-12 6.7% 28.6% 3.4% 25.2% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.8 26.1%
5-13 4.4% 7.9% 1.7% 6.2% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 6.3%
4-14 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.4%
3-15 1.2% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.5%
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.1% 6.2% 74.9% 5.8 3.1 6.2 9.6 10.0 11.2 10.3 8.2 6.8 5.7 5.1 4.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 18.9 79.8%