Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#51
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#31
Pace68.5#201
Improvement-0.8#259

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#89
First Shot+1.7#136
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#114
Layup/Dunks+2.6#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#261
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement+1.2#65

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#22
First Shot+5.7#33
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#84
Layups/Dunks+4.5#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#99
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement-2.0#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.3% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 10.4% 4.0%
Top 6 Seed 16.5% 24.5% 11.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.3% 60.2% 39.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.6% 58.7% 37.3%
Average Seed 7.5 7.2 7.9
.500 or above 82.7% 92.0% 76.6%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 48.1% 36.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.4% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 5.4% 9.6%
First Four6.3% 6.9% 5.9%
First Round43.9% 56.6% 35.8%
Second Round24.3% 33.0% 18.7%
Sweet Sixteen9.2% 13.0% 6.8%
Elite Eight3.4% 5.1% 2.4%
Final Four1.2% 1.9% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 303   Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-46 96%     1 - 0 +16.2 -6.5 +21.6
  Nov 12, 2023 116   San Jose St. W 56-42 82%     2 - 0 +14.5 -8.0 +24.3
  Nov 16, 2023 316   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-64 97%     3 - 0 -2.5 -8.3 +5.5
  Nov 22, 2023 16   Villanova L 69-85 30%     3 - 1 -0.7 +2.0 -2.4
  Nov 23, 2023 110   Northern Iowa W 72-70 72%     4 - 1 +6.0 +4.5 +1.6
  Nov 24, 2023 55   Michigan W 73-57 53%     5 - 1 +25.4 +12.4 +15.1
  Nov 30, 2023 50   @ Butler L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 06, 2023 275   Nebraska Omaha W 81-62 96%    
  Dec 12, 2023 174   Oral Roberts W 81-67 89%    
  Dec 16, 2023 154   Vanderbilt W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 21, 2023 191   Texas Arlington W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 28, 2023 133   Sam Houston St. W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 01, 2024 242   North Alabama W 79-62 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 30   @ Texas L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 09, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 13, 2024 44   Kansas St. W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 17, 2024 3   @ Houston L 58-70 14%    
  Jan 20, 2024 11   BYU L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 24   @ Oklahoma L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 30, 2024 23   @ TCU L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 03, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 06, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 10, 2024 83   Central Florida W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 12, 2024 4   Kansas L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 17, 2024 33   @ Iowa St. L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 20, 2024 23   TCU L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 24, 2024 83   @ Central Florida W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 27, 2024 30   Texas W 72-71 51%    
  Mar 02, 2024 102   @ West Virginia W 68-65 59%    
  Mar 05, 2024 75   @ Oklahoma St. W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 09, 2024 13   Baylor L 75-78 41%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.4 3.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.7 1.5 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.1 2.9 0.2 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.1 1.1 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 4.7 2.0 0.1 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.1 2.2 0.2 9.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 2.0 0.3 7.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.4 9.2 11.6 13.3 13.3 12.1 10.5 7.4 5.2 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 83.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 66.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.0% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.7% 100.0% 9.0% 91.0% 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 2.9% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.2% 99.4% 5.6% 93.8% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
11-7 7.4% 97.4% 6.0% 91.4% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.3%
10-8 10.5% 92.8% 3.7% 89.1% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.8 92.5%
9-9 12.1% 78.7% 2.9% 75.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.0 2.6 78.0%
8-10 13.3% 49.1% 2.8% 46.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.3 0.3 6.8 47.6%
7-11 13.3% 21.2% 2.5% 18.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 19.2%
6-12 11.6% 5.0% 2.2% 2.8% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 2.8%
5-13 9.2% 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.0 0.2%
4-14 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
3-15 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 47.3% 3.1% 44.2% 7.5 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.1 4.3 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.9 5.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 52.7 45.6%