Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#33
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#90
Pace67.8#218
Improvement-4.3#359

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#82
First Shot+0.8#158
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#54
Layup/Dunks+3.8#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#319
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement-4.0#362

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#8
First Shot+8.5#10
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#147
Layups/Dunks+16.0#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#338
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement-0.3#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 2.8% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 10.8% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 21.9% 23.9% 11.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.4% 58.3% 40.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.8% 55.7% 38.2%
Average Seed 7.1 7.0 7.8
.500 or above 87.6% 90.3% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 51.7% 53.8% 41.2%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.4% 6.5%
First Four5.1% 5.3% 4.4%
First Round53.1% 55.9% 38.9%
Second Round33.9% 36.1% 22.7%
Sweet Sixteen14.6% 15.7% 9.2%
Elite Eight6.3% 6.7% 3.8%
Final Four2.6% 2.8% 1.5%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 28 - 11
Quad 33 - 111 - 12
Quad 48 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 321   Green Bay W 85-44 98%     1 - 0 +29.2 +16.2 +16.7
  Nov 09, 2023 345   Lindenwood W 102-47 99%     2 - 0 +39.8 +17.8 +19.9
  Nov 12, 2023 269   Idaho St. W 86-55 96%     3 - 0 +22.3 +8.2 +13.3
  Nov 19, 2023 327   Grambling St. W 92-37 98%     4 - 0 +42.2 +17.4 +26.7
  Nov 23, 2023 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-64 72%     5 - 0 +10.3 +7.5 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2023 63   Virginia Tech L 62-71 64%     5 - 1 -0.5 -5.1 +4.1
  Nov 26, 2023 19   Texas A&M L 69-73 43%     5 - 2 +10.0 -3.0 +13.2
  Dec 01, 2023 182   @ DePaul W 73-63 84%    
  Dec 07, 2023 37   Iowa W 80-76 64%    
  Dec 10, 2023 233   Prairie View W 76-57 96%    
  Dec 17, 2023 338   Florida A&M W 77-50 99%    
  Dec 21, 2023 336   Eastern Illinois W 80-53 99%    
  Dec 31, 2023 239   New Hampshire W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 24   @ Oklahoma L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 09, 2024 3   Houston L 61-65 36%    
  Jan 13, 2024 75   Oklahoma St. W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 16, 2024 11   @ BYU L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 20, 2024 23   @ TCU L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 24, 2024 44   Kansas St. W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 27, 2024 4   Kansas L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 03, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 72-78 28%    
  Feb 06, 2024 30   @ Texas L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 23   TCU W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 13, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 17, 2024 51   Texas Tech W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 19, 2024 3   @ Houston L 58-68 19%    
  Feb 24, 2024 102   West Virginia W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 28, 2024 24   Oklahoma W 67-65 58%    
  Mar 02, 2024 83   @ Central Florida W 72-69 61%    
  Mar 06, 2024 11   BYU L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 09, 2024 44   @ Kansas St. L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.3 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 5.4 1.7 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.5 0.7 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.4 1.3 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 1.8 0.1 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.4 9.7 12.0 13.6 13.5 12.1 10.2 7.2 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 75.5% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 43.6% 1.1    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.4% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 4.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.2% 99.8% 9.4% 90.4% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 10.2% 98.0% 8.1% 89.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.8%
10-8 12.1% 91.8% 6.3% 85.5% 7.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 91.3%
9-9 13.5% 76.7% 4.7% 71.9% 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 75.5%
8-10 13.6% 43.5% 4.4% 39.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.3 0.4 7.7 40.9%
7-11 12.0% 12.1% 3.5% 8.6% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.5 8.9%
6-12 9.7% 3.6% 2.7% 1.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.3 1.0%
5-13 6.4% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.1%
4-14 3.8% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.7
3-15 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 55.4% 5.5% 49.9% 7.1 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.3 5.7 6.5 7.8 8.0 6.1 5.8 4.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 44.6 52.8%