Baylor
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#7
Expected Predictive Rating+20.8#7
Pace71.7#116
Improvement+0.3#156

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#1
First Shot+13.4#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#226
Layup/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#16
Freethrows+3.9#30
Improvement+0.6#132

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#70
First Shot-2.2#251
After Offensive Rebounds+6.0#2
Layups/Dunks+1.2#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#124
Freethrows+1.4#107
Improvement-0.2#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.6% 5.9% 3.2%
#1 Seed 22.7% 24.0% 13.7%
Top 2 Seed 45.8% 47.9% 32.0%
Top 4 Seed 74.3% 76.3% 61.2%
Top 6 Seed 87.4% 88.8% 77.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 97.5% 93.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.5% 97.1% 92.6%
Average Seed 3.3 3.2 4.0
.500 or above 99.3% 99.5% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 88.4% 81.8%
Conference Champion 19.9% 20.6% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 3.1%
First Round96.2% 96.8% 91.7%
Second Round82.6% 83.7% 74.8%
Sweet Sixteen53.4% 54.6% 45.9%
Elite Eight29.5% 30.3% 23.9%
Final Four15.6% 16.3% 11.1%
Championship Game8.0% 8.3% 5.5%
National Champion4.0% 4.2% 2.7%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 6
Quad 26 - 114 - 7
Quad 33 - 018 - 7
Quad 45 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 17   Auburn W 88-82 57%     1 - 0 +20.6 +15.5 +4.6
  Nov 12, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 77-62 96%     2 - 0 +11.4 +0.8 +9.8
  Nov 14, 2023 282   UMKC W 99-61 98%     3 - 0 +28.5 +27.9 +2.8
  Nov 22, 2023 147   Oregon St. W 88-72 92%     4 - 0 +17.0 +15.6 +1.0
  Nov 24, 2023 33   Florida W 95-91 67%     5 - 0 +15.9 +22.3 -6.6
  Nov 28, 2023 258   Nicholls St. W 108-70 98%     6 - 0 +29.9 +27.2 +1.4
  Dec 02, 2023 339   Northwestern St. W 91-40 99%     7 - 0 +36.2 +12.7 +25.3
  Dec 05, 2023 75   Seton Hall W 82-70 87%    
  Dec 16, 2023 16   Michigan St. W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 20, 2023 12   Duke W 78-77 53%    
  Dec 22, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 93-54 100.0%   
  Jan 02, 2024 121   Cornell W 94-77 93%    
  Jan 06, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 79-72 76%    
  Jan 09, 2024 9   BYU W 82-79 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 16, 2024 55   @ Kansas St. W 83-78 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 25   @ Texas W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 27, 2024 29   TCU W 85-78 74%    
  Jan 31, 2024 79   @ Central Florida W 83-76 74%    
  Feb 03, 2024 24   Iowa St. W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 06, 2024 54   Texas Tech W 81-71 83%    
  Feb 10, 2024 5   @ Kansas L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 13, 2024 23   Oklahoma W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 17, 2024 105   @ West Virginia W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 20, 2024 9   @ BYU L 79-82 40%    
  Feb 24, 2024 3   Houston W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 26, 2024 29   @ TCU W 82-81 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 5   Kansas W 79-77 59%    
  Mar 04, 2024 25   Texas W 84-77 73%    
  Mar 09, 2024 54   @ Texas Tech W 78-74 66%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 5.1 6.1 4.4 1.7 0.4 19.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.1 5.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.1 4.4 1.0 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.1 4.5 1.0 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.5 4.1 4.2 0.9 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.1 1.1 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.7 0.2 4.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.7 8.4 11.0 12.9 14.8 13.4 11.9 8.2 4.7 1.7 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.7% 1.7    1.7 0.1
16-2 93.8% 4.4    3.6 0.8
15-3 74.3% 6.1    4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.9% 5.1    2.1 2.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 14.1% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 12.1 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.1 1.6 0.2 100.0%
16-2 4.7% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.2 3.6 1.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.2% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 1.4 5.5 2.5 0.3 100.0%
14-4 11.9% 100.0% 14.8% 85.2% 1.6 5.6 5.0 1.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 2.0 3.7 6.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.8% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 2.6 1.8 5.4 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-7 12.9% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.3 0.5 2.3 4.7 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.0% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 4.3 0.1 0.4 2.3 3.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 8.4% 99.4% 8.4% 91.0% 5.5 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
8-10 5.7% 96.8% 6.9% 89.9% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.6%
7-11 3.6% 82.4% 4.7% 77.7% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.6 81.6%
6-12 1.8% 47.6% 3.6% 44.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.9 45.7%
5-13 0.8% 15.5% 4.4% 11.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 11.6%
4-14 0.3% 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6%
3-15 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.0% 12.5% 84.5% 3.3 22.7 23.2 17.3 11.2 8.1 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 96.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 93.8 6.2