Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#55
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#52
Pace73.5#65
Improvement-0.1#188

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#59
First Shot+1.9#120
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#32
Layup/Dunks+3.8#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#257
Freethrows+4.1#28
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#69
First Shot+4.3#58
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#228
Layups/Dunks+2.1#104
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#129
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement-0.1#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.9% 4.5% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 9.1% 13.0% 5.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.2% 44.4% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.5% 42.9% 24.3%
Average Seed 8.1 7.8 8.5
.500 or above 62.4% 73.6% 51.6%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 38.5% 28.5%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.3% 8.3% 12.2%
First Four6.0% 6.8% 5.2%
First Round32.2% 40.9% 23.7%
Second Round17.0% 21.8% 12.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 7.0% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.7% 1.1%
Final Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 14
Quad 45 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 32   USC L 69-82 38%     0 - 1 -1.0 -4.2 +4.4
  Nov 10, 2023 226   Bellarmine W 83-75 91%     1 - 1 +2.1 +5.9 -4.0
  Nov 13, 2023 134   South Dakota St. W 91-68 82%     2 - 1 +22.1 +11.8 +9.1
  Nov 17, 2023 44   Providence W 73-70 OT 44%     3 - 1 +13.5 -0.5 +13.7
  Nov 19, 2023 39   Miami (FL) L 83-91 41%     3 - 2 +3.4 +9.1 -5.3
  Nov 22, 2023 348   Central Arkansas W 100-56 98%     4 - 2 +28.3 +17.9 +10.1
  Nov 28, 2023 159   Oral Roberts W 88-78 OT 86%     5 - 2 +7.2 +9.7 -2.7
  Dec 02, 2023 222   North Alabama W 75-74 OT 91%     6 - 2 -4.6 -6.2 +1.5
  Dec 05, 2023 31   Villanova L 70-71 49%    
  Dec 09, 2023 94   @ LSU W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 17, 2023 48   Nebraska W 77-75 58%    
  Dec 21, 2023 84   Wichita St. W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 02, 2024 338   Chicago St. W 84-60 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 79   Central Florida W 79-74 70%    
  Jan 09, 2024 105   @ West Virginia W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 13, 2024 54   @ Texas Tech L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 16, 2024 7   Baylor L 78-83 34%    
  Jan 20, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 24, 2024 24   @ Iowa St. L 70-77 28%    
  Jan 27, 2024 3   @ Houston L 62-76 10%    
  Jan 30, 2024 23   Oklahoma L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 03, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 05, 2024 5   Kansas L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 10, 2024 9   @ BYU L 72-82 18%    
  Feb 17, 2024 29   TCU L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 19, 2024 25   @ Texas L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 24, 2024 9   BYU L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 26, 2024 105   West Virginia W 75-67 75%    
  Mar 02, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 73-79 32%    
  Mar 05, 2024 5   @ Kansas L 70-81 16%    
  Mar 09, 2024 24   Iowa St. L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.4 3.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.4 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.3 2.8 0.3 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.4 0.6 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.1 1.4 0.1 11.1 10th
11th 0.4 3.1 5.5 2.0 0.1 11.0 11th
12th 0.4 2.6 4.6 2.2 0.2 10.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 5.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.6 1.9 4.2 8.2 10.7 12.9 14.0 14.1 12.2 9.1 5.7 3.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 81.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 64.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 38.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.7% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.5% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.4 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.8% 99.7% 4.2% 95.4% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 5.7% 97.1% 4.9% 92.2% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.9%
10-8 9.1% 88.2% 5.1% 83.1% 7.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.1 87.5%
9-9 12.2% 69.7% 2.5% 67.2% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.7 68.9%
8-10 14.1% 33.6% 2.1% 31.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.3 32.2%
7-11 14.0% 9.7% 2.2% 7.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.6 7.6%
6-12 12.9% 2.8% 1.9% 0.8% 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.5 0.9%
5-13 10.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.6
4-14 8.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.1
3-15 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.2
2-16 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 35.2% 2.6% 32.6% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.8 4.7 5.7 5.0 5.2 4.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.8 33.5%