TCU
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#23
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#152
Pace76.2#34
Improvement-0.7#251

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#43
First Shot+5.6#46
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+12.3#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#340
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-1.0#289

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#20
First Shot+7.1#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#175
Layups/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows+4.0#14
Improvement+0.3#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 3.9% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 12.1% 13.7% 5.9%
Top 6 Seed 25.1% 27.9% 14.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.2% 64.7% 47.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.6% 62.1% 45.2%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 7.6
.500 or above 94.8% 96.5% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 67.4% 69.7% 58.4%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.8% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.0% 3.5%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 4.4%
First Round59.3% 62.8% 45.9%
Second Round39.3% 42.2% 28.3%
Sweet Sixteen17.9% 19.6% 11.4%
Elite Eight8.3% 9.0% 5.4%
Final Four3.5% 3.9% 2.1%
Championship Game1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 79.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 33 - 012 - 9
Quad 48 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 319   Southern W 108-75 98%     1 - 0 +21.5 +23.2 -4.0
  Nov 09, 2023 275   Nebraska Omaha W 82-60 97%     2 - 0 +12.8 -4.9 +15.7
  Nov 14, 2023 326   UT Rio Grande Valley W 88-55 98%     3 - 0 +20.2 +2.3 +15.4
  Nov 17, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 86-52 99.6%    4 - 0 +11.8 +5.6 +6.4
  Nov 21, 2023 291   Alcorn St. W 93-74 97%     5 - 0 +9.0 +1.0 +5.5
  Nov 27, 2023 358   Houston Christian W 101-64 99%     6 - 0 +19.0 +2.7 +11.2
  Dec 02, 2023 142   @ Georgetown W 84-75 79%    
  Dec 09, 2023 46   Clemson W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 16, 2023 86   Arizona St. W 76-69 75%    
  Dec 21, 2023 181   Old Dominion W 77-63 90%    
  Jan 01, 2024 303   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-59 99%    
  Jan 06, 2024 4   @ Kansas L 72-81 21%    
  Jan 09, 2024 24   Oklahoma W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 3   Houston L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 16, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 20, 2024 33   Iowa St. W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 23, 2024 75   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 80-85 31%    
  Jan 30, 2024 51   Texas Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 03, 2024 30   Texas W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 10, 2024 33   @ Iowa St. L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 12, 2024 102   West Virginia W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 17, 2024 44   @ Kansas St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 20, 2024 51   @ Texas Tech W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 24, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 26, 2024 13   Baylor W 83-82 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 11   @ BYU L 74-80 31%    
  Mar 06, 2024 102   @ West Virginia W 75-69 70%    
  Mar 09, 2024 83   Central Florida W 82-72 81%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.1 3.5 0.6 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.4 3.3 5.2 1.2 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 5.2 2.0 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 3.2 1.0 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.3 0.1 4.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 3.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 6.1 8.6 11.0 12.6 13.8 13.1 11.0 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.8% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 68.5% 1.9    1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.1% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.8% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.7 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.9% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.7 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.7% 99.6% 10.3% 89.2% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 11.0% 97.3% 8.3% 89.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.1%
11-7 13.1% 91.9% 6.6% 85.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.1 91.3%
10-8 13.8% 79.0% 5.8% 73.2% 8.7 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 2.3 0.7 2.9 77.7%
9-9 12.6% 55.5% 4.6% 50.9% 9.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 2.5 1.2 0.1 5.6 53.4%
8-10 11.0% 24.6% 3.8% 20.8% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.3 21.6%
7-11 8.6% 7.7% 3.2% 4.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.0 4.6%
6-12 6.1% 4.0% 3.6% 0.3% 12.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.9 0.3%
5-13 3.6% 1.8% 1.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.2% 6.3% 54.9% 6.9 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.1 5.9 7.1 8.8 8.8 7.4 6.5 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 38.8 58.6%