Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#79
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#98
Pace77.6#26
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#152
First Shot+0.9#152
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+0.8#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#303
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement-0.5#218

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#33
First Shot+1.4#125
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#6
Layups/Dunks+8.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#231
Freethrows-6.2#361
Improvement+0.3#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 11.8% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.7% 10.3% 3.8%
Average Seed 9.2 9.2 10.2
.500 or above 55.2% 57.9% 30.5%
.500 or above in Conference 14.3% 15.1% 7.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 24.7% 34.5%
First Four2.4% 2.5% 1.1%
First Round9.8% 10.4% 4.0%
Second Round4.4% 4.7% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 10
Quad 23 - 35 - 13
Quad 34 - 19 - 14
Quad 46 - 115 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 228   Florida International W 85-62 88%     1 - 0 +16.9 +2.0 +12.6
  Nov 10, 2023 39   @ Miami (FL) L 72-88 23%     1 - 1 -1.6 -4.2 +4.3
  Nov 16, 2023 201   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-44 85%     2 - 1 +23.3 +0.8 +23.5
  Nov 19, 2023 134   South Dakota St. W 83-80 67%     3 - 1 +5.1 +8.6 -3.6
  Nov 20, 2023 131   Charlotte W 74-71 OT 66%     4 - 1 +5.3 -1.3 +6.5
  Nov 26, 2023 165   Stetson L 82-85 82%     4 - 2 -6.0 -2.3 -3.5
  Dec 02, 2023 151   Lipscomb W 72-57 80%     5 - 2 +12.5 -8.2 +19.6
  Dec 06, 2023 245   Jacksonville W 78-64 90%    
  Dec 10, 2023 77   Mississippi W 72-70 59%    
  Dec 18, 2023 251   Maine W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 21, 2023 336   Florida A&M W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 29, 2023 351   Bethune-Cookman W 87-64 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 55   @ Kansas St. L 74-79 30%    
  Jan 10, 2024 5   Kansas L 71-78 24%    
  Jan 13, 2024 9   BYU L 73-80 27%    
  Jan 17, 2024 25   @ Texas L 72-81 20%    
  Jan 20, 2024 3   @ Houston L 59-75 7%    
  Jan 23, 2024 105   West Virginia W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 71-79 23%    
  Jan 31, 2024 7   Baylor L 76-83 26%    
  Feb 03, 2024 23   Oklahoma L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 10, 2024 54   @ Texas Tech L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 13, 2024 9   @ BYU L 70-83 13%    
  Feb 17, 2024 36   Cincinnati L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 20, 2024 105   @ West Virginia L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 24, 2024 54   Texas Tech W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 28, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-73 41%    
  Mar 02, 2024 24   Iowa St. L 71-74 37%    
  Mar 06, 2024 3   Houston L 62-72 19%    
  Mar 09, 2024 29   @ TCU L 72-81 21%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.6 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.6 1.1 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.3 6.1 2.0 0.1 13.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 4.3 6.5 2.8 0.3 14.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.4 4.9 6.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 16.8 13th
14th 0.7 2.7 5.1 5.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 16.3 14th
Total 0.7 2.9 6.6 11.0 13.7 15.2 13.8 11.9 9.9 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 63.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 14.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.9% 97.5% 5.9% 91.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.3%
11-7 2.1% 90.0% 5.3% 84.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 89.5%
10-8 4.1% 71.5% 4.9% 66.6% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.2 70.0%
9-9 6.5% 39.1% 2.0% 37.1% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.0 3.9 37.8%
8-10 9.9% 11.7% 1.8% 9.9% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 8.7 10.0%
7-11 11.9% 3.7% 2.5% 1.2% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.4 1.2%
6-12 13.8% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13.6 0.1%
5-13 15.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.0
4-14 13.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.6
3-15 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
2-16 6.6% 6.6
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 11.2% 1.6% 9.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 88.9 9.7%