Cincinnati
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#36
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#41
Pace70.8#142
Improvement-0.7#233

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#34
First Shot+1.3#142
After Offensive Rebound+5.1#9
Layup/Dunks+1.6#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#48
Freethrows-2.6#310
Improvement+1.2#73

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#44
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#19
Layups/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#38
Freethrows+1.0#126
Improvement-1.9#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 11.4% 11.8% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 23.3% 24.1% 9.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.0% 57.2% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.7% 54.9% 34.0%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.0
.500 or above 94.8% 95.5% 83.5%
.500 or above in Conference 56.2% 57.0% 43.3%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.4% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.6% 8.5%
First Four5.9% 6.0% 5.5%
First Round53.1% 54.4% 33.6%
Second Round32.9% 33.8% 19.0%
Sweet Sixteen14.0% 14.5% 6.3%
Elite Eight6.0% 6.2% 1.8%
Final Four2.4% 2.5% 0.3%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 7
Quad 24 - 28 - 9
Quad 36 - 114 - 10
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 137   Illinois-Chicago W 69-58 88%     1 - 0 +9.8 -4.4 +13.9
  Nov 10, 2023 323   Detroit Mercy W 93-61 98%     2 - 0 +20.1 +8.3 +10.4
  Nov 12, 2023 217   Eastern Washington W 85-73 93%     3 - 0 +6.6 +0.7 +5.1
  Nov 19, 2023 186   Northern Kentucky W 90-66 92%     4 - 0 +19.9 +20.8 +0.3
  Nov 22, 2023 104   Georgia Tech W 89-54 83%     5 - 0 +36.4 +16.4 +19.6
  Nov 28, 2023 224   @ Howard W 86-81 OT 85%     6 - 0 +5.2 +10.2 -5.1
  Dec 03, 2023 220   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-64 94%    
  Dec 09, 2023 45   @ Xavier L 75-77 42%    
  Dec 12, 2023 197   Bryant W 83-67 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 60   Dayton W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 19, 2023 259   Merrimack W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 22, 2023 165   Stetson W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 29, 2023 207   Evansville W 83-66 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 9   @ BYU L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 09, 2024 25   Texas W 77-75 56%    
  Jan 13, 2024 7   @ Baylor L 75-83 23%    
  Jan 16, 2024 29   TCU W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 20, 2024 23   Oklahoma W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 22, 2024 5   @ Kansas L 70-78 22%    
  Jan 27, 2024 79   Central Florida W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 31, 2024 105   @ West Virginia W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 03, 2024 54   @ Texas Tech L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 3   Houston L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 13, 2024 24   Iowa St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 17, 2024 79   @ Central Florida W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 21, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 24, 2024 29   @ TCU L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 27, 2024 3   @ Houston L 62-73 16%    
  Mar 02, 2024 55   Kansas St. W 79-73 68%    
  Mar 05, 2024 23   @ Oklahoma L 71-75 35%    
  Mar 09, 2024 105   West Virginia W 75-65 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.6 0.3 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.4 3.8 5.0 0.9 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 5.5 2.1 0.1 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.2 3.3 0.3 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.6 0.9 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.1 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.7 0.1 7.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.3 8.6 11.3 13.0 14.4 13.7 10.6 8.0 5.1 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 96.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 79.6% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 36.0% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.9% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 3.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.1% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 3.9 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.0% 98.3% 8.7% 89.6% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
11-7 10.6% 95.7% 7.0% 88.6% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.5 95.3%
10-8 13.7% 86.8% 5.2% 81.6% 8.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 86.1%
9-9 14.4% 71.2% 4.9% 66.4% 9.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.6 0.1 4.1 69.8%
8-10 13.0% 34.9% 3.4% 31.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.8 0.2 8.4 32.6%
7-11 11.3% 12.1% 2.8% 9.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 9.6%
6-12 8.6% 3.4% 2.1% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 1.3%
5-13 5.3% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0%
4-14 3.4% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 56.0% 5.0% 51.0% 7.0 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.0 5.5 6.4 6.5 7.1 6.8 6.7 4.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 44.0 53.7%